'..Having been unable to overcome its core economic weakness and having a clearly dysfunctional intelligence service .. Its economic weakness is deeply rooted in its political arrangements .. Russia is trying to buy time, but time may hurt rather than help. The economic bleeding will not stop soon. The United States has time on its side and can afford to be clumsy..'<blockquote>'In the long run, the Russian Federation is facing the same problem as the Soviet Union did… and will thus weaken. Its current strategy is constrained by weakness but compelled by the fact it is the only option available. A strategy of bluff follows from the reality of weakness when that weakness threatens to be fatal. Meaning that the economic and strategic weakness we see makes Russia more of a risktaker in the coming years, not less.
Having been unable to overcome its core economic weakness and having a clearly dysfunctional intelligence service on which it must depend for national unity, Russian strategy appears logical. Its economic weakness is deeply rooted in its political arrangements. The FSB’s weakness stems as much from its deep involvement in the complex financial arrangements that run Russia as the challenges of maintaining the security of the Federation. Russia’s strategy is not the result of miscalculation but of hard realities.
And, therefore, any strategy based on bluffing strength when weakness is manifest is unlikely to succeed. Russia is trying to buy time, but time may hurt rather than help. The economic bleeding will not stop soon. The United States has time on its side and can afford to be clumsy. In fact, that clumsiness is built into its national strategy, which is a story for a later date.'
- George Friedman,
Russia’s Strategy, December 28, 2015</blockquote>
Context<blockquote>
'..Mr. Putin might want to take another look at that history..'Soviet Security Services Were Corrupt From the Start - By Paul Goble(Russia) - 'Obsession with regime survival is an acknowledgement of brittleness..''If Russia is to move forward, Pivovarov says, “we must cease to be Soviet people and overcome the Soviet in us.” ''..Kosygin .. who "understood our faults and shortcomings .. those in our Middle East policy in particular.." ''..Ukraine and the West must understand what Putin is doing and call it by its rightful names: invasion, Anschluss, provocation, intimidation, and panic-sowing..''..Support for Ukraine should only be sustained if Kiev pushes through reforms..'</blockquote>