Pattern recognition (Complex Phenomena) - '..a widespread economic depression.'
thoughts site

Advanced

Pattern recognition (Complex Phenomena) - '..a widespread economic depression.'

Posted by archive 
'Take away government spending, unemployment insurance, and food stamps and you have a widespread economic depression. Gallup respondents realize that; The average commentator on mainstream media doesn't.'

- Mike "Mish" Shedlock, US Economic Confidence Sinks to 2011 Low; 55% Say Economy Still in Recession or Depression, April 28, 2011


'..By 2010-2012, most Western countries will be suffering economically..'

'Inflation will rise significantly in many of the nations we do business with, as well as within our own borders, As a result, interest rates will sour, and the number of personal and small business bankruptcies will increase exponentially.

The coming war .. in the Middle East will add to the problem. Costs will be devastating. By 2010-2012, most Western countries will be suffering economically. Americans won't see relief until perhaps 2075-2080.

The United States will go to a new form of currency by the year 2030. It will vary in size and color, based on denomination. This new currency will predate a North American currency shift by twenty-five years.'

- Joseph McMoneagle (..A Remote Viewer’s Perception of Time, and Predictions for the New Millennium 1998)


'..our senses show us new patterns, this causes surprise and questioning. To such curiosity we owe the beginning of science. ..we must get rid of is the naive superstition that the world must be so organized that it is possible by direct observation to discover simple regularities between all phenomena and that this is a necessary presupposition for the application of the scientific method.'

'Many such regularities of nature are recognized 'intuitively' by our senses .. our senses show us new patterns, this causes surprise and questioning. To such curiosity we owe the beginning of science.

Marvelous, however, as the intuitive capacity of our senses for pattern recognition is, it is still limited...

..

The advance of science will thus have to proceed in two different directions : while it is certainly desirable to make our theories as falsifiable as possible, we must also push forward into fields where, as we advance, the degree of falsifiability necessarily decreases. This is the price we have to pay for an advance into the field of complex phenomena.

..The statistical method is therefore of use only where we either deliberately ignore, or are ignorant of, the relations between the individual elements with different attributes, i.e., where we ignore or are ignorant of any structure into which they are organized..

..

It is high time, however, that we take our ignorance more seriously.

..

What we must get rid of is the naive superstition that the world must be so organized that it is possible by direct observation to discover simple regularities between all phenomena and that this is a necessary presupposition for the application of the scientific method. What we have by now discovered about the organization of many complex structures should be sufficient to teach us that there is no reason to expect this, and that if we want to get ahead in these fields our aims will have to be somewhat different from what they are in the fields of simple phenomena.

- Hayek, The Theory of Complex Phenomena (pdf)