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<blockquote>'In their attempts to fight routine consumer price deflation, central bankers create very destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse, setting off what they should fear – asset bubble deflations following a buildup of bank credit on inflated assets.'
- Mike “Mish” Shedlock, Inflation Expectations Plunge: What, Me Worry? February 10, 2016</blockquote>
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Archive '..through credit expansion (otherwise known as fractional reserve banking), create money out of thin air.'
<blockquote>'I remember in 2005 talking to a money manager who formerly had been in charge of a $200 Million dollar bond portfolio for a large mid-west bank. Somehow our conversation got onto the Federal Reserve and somehow I brought up the fact that banks, through c
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Project C <blockquote>'...European leaders see markets as the cause of the problems. But unsustainable levels of debt remain the heart of the problem ... On 11 May 1931, the failure of a European bank – Austria’s Credit-Anstalt – was a pivotal event in the ensuing global financial crisis and the Great Depression. The failure set off a chain reaction and crisis in the European banking system. Som
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Project C By Satyajit Das
January 19, 2010
Source
In 1971, Ralph Lapp, a nuclear physicist, used the term "China syndrome" to describe a hypothetical nuclear reactor meltdown where the molten core breaches containment barriers and melts through the crust of the Earth reaching China. The economic equivalent of the China Syndrome describes a process in which China's strong growth, abundan
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Archive <blockquote>'According to top experts, risky derivatives were not only largely responsible for bringing down the American (and world) economy, but they still pose a substantial systemic risk:<blockquote>
* A Nobel prize-winning economist (George Akerlof) predicted in 1993 that CDS would cause the next meltdown
* Warren Buffett called them “weapons of mass destruction”
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Archive <blockquote>'The reviewer at the Economist was especially taken by the final sentence: “Deliciously paradoxically, the Nobel could end up diminishing, not fortifying, the qualifications-blindness and self-enslavement to equations-led dictums that, fifth-columnist style, pave the path for our sacrifice at the altar of misplaced concreteness.” '
- Guest Post: Satyajit Das on Financ
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Archive Guest Post: Satyajit Das on Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Finance
Monday, September 21, 2009
Source
By Satyajit Das, a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives:
One year ago, AIG was brought to the brink of bankruptcy as a result its exposure under credit default swaps (”CDS”) (a form of credit insurance). Asset backed s
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Archive <blockquote>"There is currently confusion between the "disease" – the high levels of debt – and the "cure" – the reduction of the level of debt now underway (known as "de-leveraging")."</blockquote>
Ponzi Prosperity – Built-to-Fail Economic Models
By Satyajit Das
July 06, 2009
Source
Lessons from the global financial crisis
The glo
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Archive <blockquote>'The reality is that the global economic system is deleveraging and levels of debt must be reduced. As result, asset values are declining and sustainable growth levels have fallen significantly. In this environment, banks are likely to continue to suffer losses on assets (bad debts and further write-offs) and earnings will remain sluggish (lower loan demand and lower levels
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Archive <blockquote>"The truth is that banks remain in the ICU (intensive care unit). Even after around $900 billion in new capital, the global banking system remains short of capital by $1 trillion to $2 trillion. This translates into an effective reduction in available credit of around 20% to 30% from previous levels. Bank earnings and balance sheets remain under pressure.
The financial
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Archive By : Satyajit Das
October 17, 2008
Related Categories: Book Reviews
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Lawrence E. Mitchell “The Speculation Economy” (2007) Berret-Koehler Publishers, Inc, San Francisco
Johan Van Overtveldt “The Chicago School” (2007) Agate Publishing, Chicago
A former American President observed that: “The business of America is business”. In the 20th century, the business of business became
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Archive By Satyajit Das
October 20, 2008
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In the "Arabian Nights," the beautiful princess Scheherazade buys one day of life at a time by recounting fantastic fables that enchant the King who has condemned her to die. Investors and traders are currently telling each other fairy tales to buy one day at a time to stave off the inevitable.
The drama and tumult of recent events are not
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Archive <blockquote>"Morgan’s derivatives project began in the wake of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 as an attempt to protect the bank from bad loans. Demchak’s innovations worked—for his bank. Morgan came to dominate this corner of the financial world while preserving a culture of prudence. Morgan—deemed to be so safe that it snagged two of the victims of the financial-system collapse, B
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Archive <blockquote>...You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When..... Here are those points:
<blockquote>24. There is roughly $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. $2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured. There is only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. Indymac will eat up roughly $8 billion of that.
25. Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cas
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Project C <blockquote>"The current focus is on reforming the financial system. This is like discussing lifestyle changes with a patient admitted to ER in full cardiac arrest. What is needed is the defibrillator paddles!"</blockquote>
The End of the Beginning – Developments in the Credit Crisis
By Satyajit Das
May 27, 2008
Source
Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and autho
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Project C "Backshall and his clients aren't the only ones spooked by the prospect of a CDS catastrophe. Billionaire investor George Soros says a chain reaction of failures in the swaps market could trigger the next global financial crisis.
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The Fed was worried about the biggest players in the CDS market, Mason says. ``It was a JPMorgan bailout, not a bailout of Bear,'' he says.
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Project C "Mr Das said there needed to be a massive reduction in debt levels globally or a "nuclear deleveraging" before the crisis could be said to be over. That could be achieved through an economic crash "on the scale of 1929" but allowing inflation to rise would help to avoid that scenario. Higher inflation was a legitimate policy option since it reduced the real value of debt
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Archive 'The CDS market entails complex chains of risk. This is similar to the re-insurance chains that proved so problematic in the case of Lloyds. The CDS markets have certain similarities with the reinsurance markets. The CDS fees like the reinsurance premiums are received up front. In both cases the risks are both potentially significant and "long tail" - they do not emerge immediately
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Project C By Satyajit Das
February 15, 2008
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Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives (2006, FT-Prentice Hall).
2007 may come to associated with the start of the "big" credit crunch. 2008 has begun with a number of "unresolved" items. Hope of an early resolution seems to be fading. I
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Archive "it has often been innovation without substance. And it's achieved nothing. It's been cosmetic."
-- Satyajit Das ( More )
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"Over the last two decades, few industries have lobbied more ferociously or effectively than banks to get the government out of its business and to obtain freer rein for “financial innovation.”
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...banks and Wall Street firms tha
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Project C The financial system has become dependent on debt and the transfer of risk via convoluted debt instruments, creating a mess that will require hundreds of billions of dollars and global cooperation to fix.
(SuperModels)
By Jon Markman
2/21/2008
Source
Since the wheels started coming off the stock market last summer, investors have looked to at least seven white knights to end the distre
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Archive "it has often been innovation without substance. And it's achieved nothing. It's been cosmetic."
-- Satyajit Das ( Source )
"The UK’s Financial Services Authority warned last week that there was probably more fraud on the way, either because of misdeeds surfacing from more lax times or because individuals were now pressed into wrongdoing by falling markets. Place yo
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Project C “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, but the one most responsive to change.”
– Charles Darwin
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"it has often been innovation without substance. And it's achieved nothing. It's been cosmetic."
-- Satyajit Das ( Credit Crunch - Regulatory Debauchery )
Bankers love Darwinian finance - until they're faced with extinction
By Brian Milner
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Archive Behind the recent bad news lurks a much deeper concern: The world economy is now being driven by a vast, secretive web of investments that might be out of anyone's control.
By Stephen Mihm
January 27, 2008
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THE PAST YEAR has been a harrowing one for the world's financial markets, shaken by subprime crises, credit crunches, and other ills. Things have only gotten stranger i
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Archive "Excessive lending against over-optimistic asset valuations is a time-honoured recipe for asset price bubbles. The largest credit bubble that the world has seen is finally deflating. The current credit crunch is more than the bursting of a “bubble”. It is the crucible in which theories of the “new money” and the financial jiggery pokery (more politely known as financial engineering) of the s
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Archive By Robert Cookson, Paul J Davies and Sarah O'Connor
January 11 2008
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When Ned Bowers jumped ship from US bond insurance group Radian with a plan to clean up in the booming world of credit derivatives in the summer of 2006, he was riding the crest of a market wave.
Little did he or anyone else know that a year later that wave would break violently, all but destroying his Dublin-
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Archive "Central banks and regulators bear a serious responsibility for safeguarding the functioning and integrity of financial systems. At the moment they are being exposed like the Wizard of Oz – old desperate men (they are mainly men) behind the curtain running from one lever to another in a desperate attempt to maintain illusions."
Regulatory Debauchery
By Satyajit Das
November 27,
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Project C "The fall in asset prices has “wealth” effects. US consumption, based on borrowing against the inflated values of financial assets, drives the export driven economies of Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. Lower commodity prices already point to slower global growth. While main street was trying the assess the fallout, Wall Street was already issuing “pink slips” by the thousands as bank
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Project C U.S. money market funds have invested $11 billion in subprime debt, much of it managed by Bear Stearns.
By David Evans
Bloomberg Markets October 2007
Source
Money market funds were invented 37 years ago to offer investors better returns than bank savings accounts while providing a high degree of safety. Most of the $2.5 trillion sitting in these funds is invested in such assets as U.S. Tr
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Archive "...CDOs were first widely used back in the late 1980s by Drexel Burnham Lambert junk-bond king Michael Milken to sell off damaged and previously unsellable debt in a way that was more palatable to customers."
SuperModels
Are we headed for an epic bear market?
By Jon Markman
9/20/2007
Source
Satyajit Das is laughing. It appears I have said something very funny, but I hav
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