NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The American consumer has become deeply addicted
to spending, running up ever higher levels of debt in order to live in
a fashion that is beyond his means. And the world has become equally
addicted to the consumer continuing to burn through cash.
It's a dangerous situation -- potentially a bubble that
dwarfs even the U.S. asset bubble that burst in 2000 -- and it will be
a challenge for policy-makers to keep it from ending badly.
The perseverance of consumer spending over the past
several years is credited with keeping the economy afloat, but it
didn't come without consequence. In order to keep on living in the
manner they became accustomed to during the boom years, Americans went
deeply into hock.
"If there's a bubble, it's in this four-letter word:
Debt," said Merrill Lynch chief North American economist Dave
Rosenberg. "The U.S. economy is just awash in it."
Indeed, consumer credit and mortgage debt are both a
higher percentage of disposable income now than they've ever been
before. Nor do these rises in debt levels appear justified by the rise
in the value of people's homes -- household debt as a percentage of
household assets (what you owe versus what you're worth) has also never
been so high, according to the Federal Reserve.
How did this come to pass? We live in an economy that
has become deeply dependent on the American consumer for growth. U.S.
consumer spending accounts for around 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic
product. So nobody wants to see the consumer falter, and they have been
doing their darndest to make sure that doesn't happen.
The Federal Reserve has cut rates like never before,
allowing mortgage rates to come down this year to their lowest recorded
levels. Car companies have offered zero percent financing for two years
now, and they've recently begun offering it on 2004 vehicles.
But rather than using such rate reductions as an
opportunity to save money, consumers have, as a whole, used them as an
opportunity to spend more.
"We're a what's-my-monthly-payment nation," said
Northern Trust chief U.S. economist Paul Kasriel. "The idea is to have
my monthly payments as high as I can take. If you cut interest rates,
I'll get a bigger car."
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Financial companies have got into the act, too, offering
people ever-more efficient ways of running up debt. Hardly does a week
go by without a new credit card offer coming in the mail.
Or consider credit cards like Wells Fargo's NowLine Visa
Platinum, which allows you easy access to a home equity line of credit.
You can use it, says Wells in its online promotion, to help pay "for
everyday expenses, like gas, groceries, clothes, etc."
Eating
your house was never so easy.
Codependency, anyone?
Other countries share in the deep commitment to keep
U.S. consumers laying out their cash. Big exporters -- Japan and China
in particular -- have strived to keep their currencies low against the
dollar, allowing Americans, in effect, to buy more of their stuff. U.S.
consumer spending accounts for around 20 percent of world gross
domestic product.
But here is another situation where the United States is
spending more than it makes. The current account deficit -- the gap in
the United States' trade in goods and services with the rest of the
world -- has risen to about 5 percent of the total economy. That's as
high as it's ever been. The chart of the current account gap as a
percentage of GDP, incidentally, looks almost exactly like a chart of
consumer credit as a percentage of income.
So the world economy is leveraged to the U.S. consumer.
And the U.S. consumer is leveraged to the hilt. There are now more
registered cars on the road in the United States than there are
licensed drivers. America's energy needs, per capita, are nearly twice
that of Great Britain's. At some point the U.S. consumer's creditors --
which is to say the rest of the world -- may have second thoughts about
how their money is being used. Kasriel compares it to a corporation
that uses its stock and bond proceeds to throw big parties, rather than
invest them in its future.
Clearly something has to give.
"Nobody can pinpoint when this process will come to an
end," said Carlos Asilis, a portfolio manager with the hedge fund Vega
Capital Management. "But it is very clear that it can't go on forever.
Do you let this bubble grow, or do you do something about it?"
There are signs that U.S. policy-makers are at least
partially trying to address the problem, pressing Japan, China and
other Asian exporters to let their currencies strengthen against the
dollar. This would, they believe, reduce consumer expenditures on
imported goods and fuel export growth as well.
But it might not solve the problem of consumers who are
continuing, in effect, to eat their seed corn. It would take a powerful
disincentive, like a Fed rate hike, to get people to stop spending and
start paying down debt and save more. But to do that would be to court
the forces of recession.
"We have a Fed that wants a booming economy, but the
only way the consumer can continue to fuel the economy is through
continued debt accumulation," said Rosenberg. "I don't know if there's
an easy way out."
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