'Forget about 2008, it's never going to happen again in our lifetime. It doesn't mean we're not going to have cycles and stock market meltdowns, but financial armaggedon is something that sells newspapers and tail risk funds love thumping their chest telling investors, "hey, look at us, the Big One is right around the corner and we're positioned to profit off it." '
- Leo Kolivakis,
Prepare For Another Black Swan? April 17, 2018
'..the odds of another 2008-like financial crisis are low.''Financial sector debt in relation to GDP has also declined considerably, according to Fed data, due to government regulations, especially the 2010 Dodd-Frank law. Combining that with the chastisement of big bank CEOs, the odds of another 2008-like financial crisis are low. Instead, if history is any guide, the next trauma will appear elsewhere just as the savings-and-loan crisis of the late 1980s was not repeated but was followed by the dot-com stock bubble collapse of the early 2000s. Then came the rise and fall of subprime mortgages.
..
Nevertheless, “the bond rally of a lifetime” that I declared in 1981 when 30-year Treasuries yielded 14.7 percent, remains intact. If their yields drop from the current area of about 3 percent to my long-held 2 percent target in 12 months, the total return will be 25 percent for an interest bearing coupon bond and 33 percent for a 30-year zero-coupon Treasury. Where can you find comparable investment prospects?'
- A. Gary Shilling,
Bonds Will Withstand the U.S. Borrowing Binge, April 9, 2018
'..the implications for the Chinese financial system..''I paid attention to CEFC initially because of the Rosneft angle. But I think a far more important angle is what CEFC’s rise and fall say about the Chinese financial system, and the ability of firms to grow rapidly and to a huge size on the basis of the most dodgy financing mechanisms. If CEFC is at all representative, the implications for the Chinese financial system are dire. Which could explain the haste with which the government consigned the story to the memory hole.'
- Streetwise Professor,
CEFC: The Rise and Fall of a Financial House of Cards, April 18, 2018
Context'Yes this bond bull will end. But when? .. [Lacy Hunt] replied "a little over 20 years".''..the past (almost) decade have been in the "Roaring Twenties" caliber..'