'August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. The only other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks, TrimTabs said.'
- CNN,
Insiders are selling stock like it's 2007, August 27, 2019
'Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield-curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.'
- CNBC,
Key yield curve inverts to worst level since 2007, 30-year rate under 2%, August 27, 2019
'..The efficacy of global monetary stimulus is at a critical juncture, as are the world’s financial, economic and geopolitical backdrops..''..The hastened formation of an international non-dollar block of economies will surely be one of the momentous consequences of the U.S./China trade war. Countries including Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea and many others will eventually operate outside of the existing U.S.-dominated structure of trade arrangements, financial relations and payment systems, and sanction regimes. Not only do I expect the unfolding crisis to be of an international scope much beyond 2008. Today’s hostile environment is in stark contrast to the cooperation and coordination that previously ensured a concerted global crisis response. There are today incredibly high stakes tottering on the perception that a unified global central bank community retains the capacity to hold crisis dynamics at bay.
August 22 – Bloomberg (Craig Torres): “Harvard University economist Lawrence Summers warned central bankers that they are staring at ‘black hole monetary economics’ where small changes in interest rates and even more aggressive strategies do little to solve demand shortfalls. ‘Interest rates stuck at zero with no real prospect of escape -- is now the confident market expectation in Europe and Japan, with essentially zero or negative yields over a generation,’ Summers wrote on in a series of tweets… ‘The United States is only one recession away from joining them.’”
Federal Reserve policy is at a critical juncture. The efficacy of global monetary stimulus is at a critical juncture, as are the world’s financial, economic and geopolitical backdrops..'
- Doug Noland,
Trade War Escalation and Bombs, August 24, 2019
Context'..I’ll assume the flow of “hot money” away from global risk markets has commenced.'