'..Western leaders must recognize that peace in Europe will remain elusive until the Russian dictator is forced to abandon his dreams of empire.''Putin’s plans for a subjugated Ukraine share many common features with his vision for the takeover of Belarus. Following the anticipated military conquest of Ukraine, Russia intended to install a puppet ruler in Kyiv who would replace Zelenskyy and play the same role as Lukashenka in Belarus. For both countries, Moscow’s ultimate goal is the same: Complete absorption into a new Russian Empire.
Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire have been evident since his first term in office but became more obvious following his formal return to the presidency in 2012. From this point onward, Putin began to openly embrace an imperialistic brand of nationalism that positioned him as the latest in a long line of Kremlin rulers celebrated as “gatherers of Russian lands.” In the contemporary context, this meant incorporating fellow East Slavic states Belarus and Ukraine into a new Russia-led union.
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..Putin clearly aims to bring both Ukrainian and Belarusian independence to an end, and has placed these imperial ambitions at the heart of his entire reign. This makes a mockery of calls for a compromise with the Kremlin. Instead, Western leaders must recognize that peace in Europe will remain elusive until the Russian dictator is forced to abandon his dreams of empire.''Over the past year, Vladimir Putin has compared himself to empire-building eighteenth century Russian Czar Peter the Great, and has attempted to annex entire regions of Ukraine while declaring that he is “returning historically Russian lands.” A recently leaked document purportedly detailing Russian plans to absorb neighboring Belarus now provides further insight into the imperial ambitions that are also driving the invasion of Ukraine.
Allegedly produced by Putin’s Presidential Administration with input from the Russian intelligence services and armed forces, the 17-page internal strategy paper was made public in early 2023 by an international consortium of journalists. It serves as a comprehensive guide to the unofficial annexation of Belarus via a combination of economic, military, political, and social measures, with the objective of full absorption into a so-called “Union State” with Russia by 2030.
The Russian takeover of Belarus as outlined in the document appears to closely mirror Moscow’s plans for Ukraine, albeit by less direct means. “Russia’s goals with regard to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine. Only in Belarus, Russia relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation,” commented Michael Carpenter, the US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, following publication of the leaked document.
The strategy document for Belarus envisions the comprehensive russification of Belarusian society along with a sharp reduction in the influence of nationalist and pro-Western forces, which are viewed by Russia as virtually indistinguishable in relation to both Belarus and Ukraine. The Belarusian political, financial, business, and education systems would be fully integrated into Russia, with a network of pro-Russian media, NGOs, and cultural institutions established to aid this integration process.
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Putin’s plans for a subjugated Ukraine share many common features with his vision for the takeover of Belarus. Following the anticipated military conquest of Ukraine, Russia intended to install a puppet ruler in Kyiv who would replace Zelenskyy and play the same role as Lukashenka in Belarus. For both countries, Moscow’s ultimate goal is the same: Complete absorption into a new Russian Empire.
Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire have been evident since his first term in office but became more obvious following his formal return to the presidency in 2012. From this point onward, Putin began to openly embrace an imperialistic brand of nationalism that positioned him as the latest in a long line of Kremlin rulers celebrated as “gatherers of Russian lands.” In the contemporary context, this meant incorporating fellow East Slavic states Belarus and Ukraine into a new Russia-led union.
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Captured documents, prisoner accounts, and the actions of the Russian occupation forces in regions of Ukraine under Kremlin control now make it possible to produce a comprehensive picture of Russia’s plans for the subjugation of the country. These plans share many features with Moscow’s approach to the creeping annexation of Belarus, while employing infinitely more direct and brutal methods.
The events of the past year make clear that Russia’s stated invasion objective of “de-Nazification” actually means the execution, imprisonment, deportation, or otherwise silencing of anyone deemed to be a Ukrainian patriot. Those targeted since the invasion began in February 2022 have included elected officials, civil society activists, educators, journalists, army veterans, and cultural figures.
The systematic suppression of Ukrainian national identity has been undertaken alongside intensive russification efforts, including the introduction of a Kremlin-approved Russian school curriculum and the promotion of an imperial identity. In parallel, local businesses have been forced to integrate into the Russian economy, with the wider population in occupied Ukraine obliged to accept Russian citizenship.
The obvious similarities between the Kremlin’s long-term Belarus strategy and the tactics being employed in occupied Ukraine undermine Russian efforts to portray the ongoing invasion as a defensive measure driven by valid security concerns. Instead, a picture emerges of Vladimir Putin’s overriding ambition to absorb both countries and secure his place in history as a “gatherer of Russian lands.”
While his approach to each country may currently differ in the details, Putin clearly aims to bring both Ukrainian and Belarusian independence to an end, and has placed these imperial ambitions at the heart of his entire reign. This makes a mockery of calls for a compromise with the Kremlin. Instead, Western leaders must recognize that peace in Europe will remain elusive until the Russian dictator is forced to abandon his dreams of empire.'
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Putin’s plan for a new Russian Empire includes both Ukraine and Belarus, March 29, 2023
'Putin’s goals indeed went far beyond those stated in the deadlocked Minsk process.''The overwhelming responsibility lies with Russia, of course. That country’s decision-making became utterly subsumed to the personalistic, paranoid, (a)historically-obsessed vision of one man, Vladimir Putin. The longer his absolute hold on power has lasted, the less likely it seems he could be convinced not to pursue his messianic vision. If any alternative outcome could have been possible, it lies in the decisions of Ukraine and its Western partners on how to interact with that gradually radicalising force in Russia.
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A debate rages online about whether this was the result of Western undermining and foreign partners’ desire to “keep striking at Putin” (to quote former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, who played an intermediary role); cautionary scepticism about Russia’s intentions (I struggle to imagine a moment of sober lucidity in Putin’s decision-making between extended periods of snarling revanche); Putin’s alleged demands that Ukraine’s army be scaled back to skeleton crew levels; Zelenskyi’s alleged belief that the Ukrainian public would not accept the terms of an agreement; his disgust at the war crimes uncovered in liberated Bucha and Irpin – or some combination of these.
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Most importantly, these reflections should consider what moves could have been made away from the ‘neither fish-nor-fowl’ status quo of 2014 to 2022. That period saw dogmas emerge in rhetoric and negotiating positions in Ukraine and the West. These dogmas were not matched by the necessary force of arms from western countries to either deter or rapidly repulse Putin’s Russia when it responded with further escalation.
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But ‘peacemongers’ like myself should ask ourselves the difficult questions, too. If Putin’s alternative to Minsk was to decapitate the Ukrainian state and launch total war not only on its physical infrastructure but also on cultural institutions – down to village libraries – then what did the Russian president expect to accomplish through those negotiations? It would seem Putin’s goals indeed went far beyond those stated in the deadlocked Minsk process.
Rather than pivoting away in either direction, we got the scenario that many of us who had advocated pursuing a ‘lousy peace’ feared: despite the West’s vastly superior arsenal, the deliberative and bureaucratic processes of these democracies did not keep pace with the Kremlin’s centralised, autocratic decision-making.
Western arms are incrementally strengthening Ukraine’s position and may eventually provide superiority – but only after its army had to hold back the Russian war machine in Donbas with bloodied hands. Through their remarkable skill and bravery, Ukrainian soldiers have slowed the Russian machine's progress almost to a stop, where it began to resemble a mill whose grist was the cities, towns and villages of Donbas.'
- Brian Milakovsky (
Source, April 24, 2023)
'Hodges said Western leaders are playing into Putin's hands by not throwing their weight behind Crimea's liberation.'' "As far as I see, some politicians in the West are afraid of the liberation of Crimea by Ukrainian army, because, in their opinion, it might lead to nuclear escalation," Merezhko said. "I think they are wrong and, on the contrary, as soon as Ukraine starts liberating Crimea it might lead to the collapse of Putin's regime within Russia."
"Crimea is the last ideological and propagandistic bastion for Putin's regime. Putin started the war of aggression against Ukraine from Crimea and the war should be finished by the total liberation of Ukrainian territories, including, of course, Crimea."
Hodges said Western leaders are playing into Putin's hands by not throwing their weight behind Crimea's liberation.
"We need to put a needle in that balloon of mythology that this was always Russia," he said. "This is important because too many people in the West, because they don't have the guts to stand up to Russia, are willing to subscribe to the myth that this is really special, and that they'll probably use a nuclear weapon because it's so special to them. That's absolute nonsense." '
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Putin's [Crimea] Myth, April 27, 2023
Context (Putin's War) - 'What are Ukraine's borders? .. they’re internationally recognized and defined in 1991.' - NavalnyUkraine’s Resilience Is About Winning the War, April 25, 2023
The Week In Russia: Putin's 'Snarling Revanche,' April 28, 2023
What the Battle in Bakhmut Has Done for Ukraine, April 22, 2023
Ukraine Crossing Dnipro River a Big Deal and General Assessment, April 24, 2023
The 5 (English) Accounts to Follow on Russia’s Ukraine War'[Russia] may become a threat to the world. That is the worst thing that could happen to Russia.' - Yegor Gaidar'Ukraine will win, sooner or later, because no fascist state has ever truly prevailed over a free country.'