'Europe can still play an important role in the outcome of this war, but it really has to start standing up now .. expect the USA to be useless.
But thankfully Ukraine is not—it is taking an extreme toll on the Russians—and hoping that Europe steps up to the plate and eats a little meat.''..The US was unable to dictate the end of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Invasion of Iraq and the 20-year fiasco in Afghanistan. Its also flailing around now in the Middle East, showing very much the limitations of what it can achieve.
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The real question is whether Europe, faced with a clearly pro-Putin Trump (which we might see in action very soon) decides to try and replace US aid to Ukraine and help the Ukrainians to victory. The Russian army remains beatable—the reason its still there is that Ukraine has not been helped in the right way to beat it.
Therefore, Europe can still play an important role in the outcome of this war, but it really has to start standing up now. Its here, where the signals are even more contradictory than they are for Trump. There is clearly some desire to move forward now with a pan-European security arrangement that will see much of the continent (Im leaving out Hungary, Slovakia and others of course). However, as always, the rhetoric can be great—but the actions so far lag.
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There should be two tests soon—the first is more military aid (and fewer restrictions) for Ukraine and the second is more military spending by European states so that they can provide for their own security. These will be the tests beyond mere rhetoric, so right now don’t watch the words, watch the aid and the spending.
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You might have forgotten in all the discussion of Trump and Europe that there is still a war raging in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom with the same conviction as always. Indeed, the Russian advances seem very limited in the last week (actually last weeks) as they are creeping forward in the Donbas, have made no appreciable advance in Kursk, and are resorting to ever more barbaric attacks on Ukrainian civilians to try and terrorize them into submission. Oh, and Russians losses are reaching extreme levels, actually above replacement levels if they continue.
In the Donbas we have been hearing for months about a deteriorating situation for Ukraine, how Pokrovsk (and before that Chasiv Yar) was about to fall, how the Russians would break out an encircle Ukrainian forces—and none of that has happened. What has happened in the last week is actually a very small amount of Russian advances.
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Finally, in a sign that Putin is basically trying anything to hammer Ukraine in preparation for a Trump presidency, the Russians unleashed a pure-horror weapon this week. These are Iranian licensed Shahed UAVs, armed with thermobaric warheads..
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They are being used deliberately on apartment buildings across Ukraine, to kill and terrorize civilians. Normally you would think the USA would be appalled enough to finally let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia in response, but as of now the Biden administration is holding firm to its disastrous policy.
So we have a template for the next two months until Trump becomes President. Expect Putin to do everything possible to seize any inch of Ukraine he can (at massive cost), expect him to try and recover Kursk (also at high cost—though these might be North Koreans in the vanguard and so far its failed) and expect him to commit any crime he can if he thinks it will work to break Ukrainian spirits.
And expect the USA to be useless.
But thankfully Ukraine is not—it is taking an extreme toll on the Russians—and hoping that Europe steps up to the plate and eats a little meat.'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien,
The World Has Changed, the Battlefield Not so Much, November 10, 2024
ContextThe USA is Trump's Now, Europe Must Get Ready - '..NATO [becoming] .. dysfunctional..''If Ukraine wins, the whole tide of the anti-democratic movement can be halted and reversed.'