'..Ukraine will have much more of a say than Trump seems to believe.'

'Guerrilla geopolitics

This is only the start of a process where the outcome is by no means guaranteed, and in which Ukraine will have much more of a say than Trump seems to believe. Nonetheless, it is clear that he wants to end the war (and perhaps pocket a Nobel peace prize into the bargain) and sees direct negotiations with Moscow over Kyiv’s head as the way to achieve that.

The Kremlin’s “guerrilla geopolitics”, relying on leveraging western weaknesses as much as Russia’s strengths, seems to be paying dividends again. Finding friends in Africa and Asia, disrupting the domestic politics of countries across Europe and the Caucasus and expanding the Brics alternative trading bloc (as Putin has managed to do throughout the war) is one thing.

..

Of course, any deal is still a long way off, and both Kyiv and Europe are determined to have their say. Washington is already walking back some of Trump’s more extravagant language, and this weekend’s Munich Security Conference has been an opportunity for every side to twist arms and bend ears to their advantage.

Yet for Putin, whether or not there is a peace deal, this represents a conclusive end to efforts to isolate him as a global pariah. Trump is eager for him to return to the global top table. He even holds out the prospect that a president wanted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court may be welcomed to Washington. No wonder even the usually restrained Russian business newspaper Kommersant last week ran the headline “Putin’s Day of Triumph”.'

- Mark Galeotti, Putin’s no longer a pariah — and his ambitions lie beyond Ukraine, February 15, 2024



Context

Zelenskyy calls for ‘armed forces of Europe’