'Israel’s attack on Iran has exposed critical weaknesses in Tehran’s broader military strategy. While Iran still has untapped shorter-range capabilities it could deploy in its immediate neighbourhood, its depleted medium-range missile arsenal and weakened regional allies leave it with limited options for retaliation against Israel.
..
Iran’s deterrence strategy, however, not only relied on the scale and sophistication of its missile arsenal but also on its ability to accurately gauge the risk tolerance and pain thresholds of its adversaries. The missile deterrent credibility of Iran and the ‘Axis of Resistance’ was based on the assumption that the costs imposed by its use would be sufficient to deter aggression. The parameters of this equation shifted rapidly after the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attacks, as Israel began to perceive the regional conflict in existential terms, adapted to a prolonged state of war and saw its tolerance for risk increase markedly. As a result, even in the absence of major changes in military capability, long-standing deterrence relationships began to break down. This was evident in the case of Hizbullah, whose deterrence relationship with Israel all but collapsed in 2024 despite no significant change in its strategic arsenal.
Today, with Iranian capabilities degraded and exposed as insufficient over the past year, and with the Israeli leadership, at least for the time being, accepting the risks of ballistic missile strikes on its population centres, the deterrence balance between Israel and Iran is unravelling at an even faster pace. Whether Israel’s elevated risk tolerance will endure in the face of more painful strikes remains to be seen.'
- Fabian Hinz,
Israel’s attack and the limits of Iran’s missile strategy, June 18, 2025
'1/ Iran's rapid military collapse is being blamed by Russian warbloggers on rampant corruption under the country's notionally Islamist regime. Everything is for sale like in "the late USSR", they say, which has allowed the Israelis to infiltrate Iran with ease.'
- ChrisO_wiki (
Source, June 17, 2025)
Context'..the collapse of the USSR was the luckiest event in the past half-century..''..repression against the opposition .. suicidal strategy. Russia's history..' - Yegor Gaidar'Israeli forces are methodically leveling Iranian bases in and around Tehran.'