'Military preparations are taking place that could herald a large-scale land invasion of Ukraine that would come from several directions. This would mean a huge war in the heartland of Europe, leading to large numbers of casualties and major changes to the international order. But it is hard to see how any of this would benefit Russia in either the domestic or the international context.
At home, it would impose a severe strain on a tired political system whose life and legitimacy is seeping away, and where change is overdue. While it is true that in 2014 the annexation of Crimea gave a boost to the political system when it was struggling with similar problems, this is unlikely to be repeated. The takeover of Crimea was popular precisely because it succeeded without a shot being fired, and because it was Crimea – no other piece of foreign land holds similar emotional significance for the Russian population. Furthermore, Russians’ main demand at the moment is for greater social welfare support, not great power conquests. A war with Ukraine would be unpopular, and the Kremlin – which keeps a keen eye on public opinion by conducting its own polls and focus groups – knows it.
On the international stage, an incursion would wreck Moscow’s dialogue with Joe Biden, which it values. The costs of war would be exacerbated by the harsh economic sanctions that would inevitably follow. Upending all its Western relationships, invading Ukraine would put Russia at the mercy of China both economically and politically, and in general decrease its room for manoeuvre.
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Secondly, Putin may feel that the Ukraine question is his to sort out, and it is better to do it sooner rather than later. He could also fear opinion changing within his own country, not least given ordinary Russians’ lack of interest in the issue. NATO enlargement to Ukraine is utterly anathema for Russia’s military planners. But, beyond them, not all members of Russia’s political establishment share Putin’s obsession with the country, or his passionate view that the Ukrainians and Russians are the same people. “Putin sees that the next generation may care less, so he has decided that he must create facts for them,” one Russian policy insider told ECFR in October.
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“A real war will start suddenly,” an influential Russian Telegram channel wrote over the weekend. The current troop mobilisation might be “heavy-metal diplomacy”, but the political demands behind it are serious. If they remain unaddressed, the next time around facts on the ground might come before diplomacy.'
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Biden meets Putin: What lies behind Russia’s military build-up, December 7, 2021
'Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008 and Russian troops have since remained in the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
"In 2008, there was an attack on Georgia. Six years passed. In 2014, there was an attack on Ukraine. A few more than six years have passed, and here we have the current situation. Nearly seven years have passed since 2014. Russia has once again gathered strength. Russia is once again flexing its muscles," Duda said.''Poland and Lithuania have joined Ukraine in calling for stronger sanctions against Russia, with Polish President Andrzej Duda saying that “everything must be done” to prevent potential Russian military aggression against Ukraine.
In a joint statement issued after their December 20 meeting in the western Ukrainian village of Huta, the Lithuanian, Ukrainian, and Polish presidents “called upon the international community to step up sanctions on the Russian Federation over its ongoing aggression against Ukraine and once again urged the Kremlin to de-escalate the situation by withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian borders and temporarily occupied territories.”
The trilateral summit, which was part of the Lublin Triangle regional forum, comes as Kyiv and its Western backers accuse Russia of massing about 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine as a possible prelude to an invasion as early as next month.
The European Union has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia over its March 2014 seizure and illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region, as well as for Moscow’s backing of separatists in eastern Ukraine in an ongoing conflict that has killed more than 13,200 people since April 2014.
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Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008 and Russian troops have since remained in the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
"In 2008, there was an attack on Georgia. Six years passed. In 2014, there was an attack on Ukraine. A few more than six years have passed, and here we have the current situation. Nearly seven years have passed since 2014. Russia has once again gathered strength. Russia is once again flexing its muscles," Duda said.'
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Polish, Lithuanian Leaders Back Kyiv And Call For No 'Concessions' To Russia, December 20, 2021
'German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has called for harsher sanctions against Russia over its troop deployment on the Ukrainian border, saying those responsible for any aggression must face "personal consequences.”
Lambrecht told the German weekly Bild am Sonntag that Germany and its allies should put Russian President Vladimir Putin and his entourage "in our sights."
"We have to exhaust all the diplomatic and economic sanction possibilities. And all further steps should be agreed with our allies," she said.
Lambrecht’s comments were published on December 19 as she visited German soldiers deployed in Lithuania as part of a NATO mission.
The visit comes amid growing concerns over regional security after Russia amassed some 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine in what Washington says could be preparations for an invasion.
Germany provides about half of the 1,200 troops of the multinational NATO combat unit in Lithuania and leads the unit as a so-called framework nation.
In response to Russia's annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014, NATO strengthened the protection of its eastern flank. Joint combat units were stationed in the three Baltic states and in Poland as part of an "enhanced forward presence."
Lambrecht took up the post of defense minister this month in Germany's new government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz.'
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German Defense Minister Calls For Harsher Sanctions Against Russia Over Troop Deployment, December 19, 2021
'..Ukrainian officials have suggested that a determined partisan resistance might take shape depending on where and how the attack occurs.
“Then the whole thing would probably evolve into a drawn-out guerrilla war that would be very painful for both sides,” Bukkvoll said in an e-mail.'
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How Long Could Ukraine Hold Out Against A New Russian Invasion? December 17, 2021
'Mohammad Yousaf, who headed the Afghan war for Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, said it best when referring to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s: “Death by a thousand cuts—this is the time-honoured tactic of the guerrilla army against a large conventional force. In Afghanistan it was the only way to bring the Soviet bear to its knees.” Russia could see history repeat itself and suffer a similar fate if its conventional forces invaded Ukraine.'
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Moscow’s Continuing Ukrainian Buildup, November 17, 2021
'While Ukrainians may be unable to defeat a large-scale invasion, they could inflict high casualties, a sensitive issue in Russia. Occupying forces might be stretched thin and vulnerable to stay-behind insurgents.
In sum, the U.S., its NATO allies and Ukraine could impose immediate and painful costs on any Russian invaders. And for many years thereafter, Russia could face reinforced NATO military power.'
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Expect 'shock and awe' if Russia invades Ukraine, August 21, 2021
Context(Russia) - 'The new National Security Concept .. the most primitive Soviet ideological vocabulary..''..Europe thinks it can separate business and politics, but to Putin it's all the same: business.''..First, freeze the Western assets and property of Russia’s leading oligarchs that Navalny alleges were obtained through corruption..''This paper explains why Russia and China’s economic cooperation plans have failed since 2014..'