'If the West shows firmness in opposing [Russian influence in Eastern Europe], Putin’s comments suggest, he will back down or at least not expand his activities in this regard, especially given his problems at home..'<blockquote>'..Kirillova continues, “Putin is very much afraid of the expansion of NATO and the appearance of NATO military bases near his borders.” The membership of the three Baltic countries in the Western alliance is thus a particular irritant. But Putin “also fears an open military conflict with NATO” and therefore is unlikely to launch open military aggression there.
Moreover, Putin is committed to restoring Russian influence in Eastern Europe. His statements about a multi-polar world and the Yalta accords at the end of World War II show that what he wants is Western acknowledgement that Eastern Europe is within Russia’s zone of influence as well.
If the West shows firmness in opposing this, Putin’s comments suggest, he will back down or at least not expand his activities in this regard, especially given his problems at home. But if the West shows that it wants negotiations, he will not only pursue them but raise the stakes by pushing harder and further so that at the very least, he will have more to “trade.”
And third, Kirillova suggests, there is “another important factor which can assist in the analysis” of what Putin will do next and that is the domestic situation in Russia itself. Not only does he face economic problems as a result of sanctions, but he is even more worried about the possible blowback of the Pugachev-style revolts he has been sponsoring.'
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Despite Contradictory Messages, Putin Remains Committed to War, Kirillova Says, June 6, 2015</blockquote>
Context<blockquote>
'..Poland has created remarkable growth and prosperity .. Ukraine’s per capita GDP now is only a third of what it is in neighboring Poland..''Russia .. has to withdraw from Ukraine to gain relief from Western sanctions..'OSCE: Fighters Captured In Ukraine Admit To Serving In Russia Army (May 21, 2015)</blockquote>