'..there is new hope that deep cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases could stabilise rising temperatures.
..
While this report is more clear and confident about the downsides to warming, the scientists are more hopeful that if we can cut global emissions in half by 2030 and reach net zero by the middle of this century, we can halt and possibly reverse the rise in temperatures.''Humanity's damaging impact on the climate is a "statement of fact", say UN scientists in a landmark study.
The report says that ongoing emissions of warming gases could also see a key temperature limit broken in just over a decade.
..there is new hope that deep cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases could stabilise rising temperatures.
..
One key aspect of the report is the expected rate of temperature rise and what it means for the safety of humanity.
Almost every nation on Earth signed up to the goals of the Paris climate agreement in 2015.
This pact aims to keep the rise in global temperatures well below 2C this century and to pursue efforts to keep it under 1.5C.
This new report says that under all the emissions scenarios considered by the scientists, both targets will be broken this century unless huge cuts in carbon take place.
The authors believe that 1.5C will be reached by 2040 in all scenarios. If emissions aren't slashed in the next few years, this will happen even earlier.
This was predicted in the IPCC's special report on 1.5C in 2018 and this new study now confirms it.
"We will hit one-and-a-half degrees in individual years much earlier. We already hit it in two months during the El Niño in 2016," said Prof Malte Meinshausen, an IPCC author from the University of Melbourne in Australia.
"The new report's best estimate is the middle of 2034, but the uncertainty is huge and ranges between now and never."
The consequences of going past 1.5C over a period of years would be unwelcome in a world that has already experienced a rapid uptick in extreme events with a temperature rise since pre-industrial times of 1.1C.
"We will see even more intense and more frequent heatwaves," said Dr Friederike Otto, from the University of Oxford, UK, and one of the IPCC report's authors.
"And we will also see an increase in heavy rainfall events on a global scale, and also increases in some types of droughts in some regions of the world."
So what can be done?
While this report is more clear and confident about the downsides to warming, the scientists are more hopeful that if we can cut global emissions in half by 2030 and reach net zero by the middle of this century, we can halt and possibly reverse the rise in temperatures.
Reaching net zero involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible using clean technology, then burying any remaining releases using carbon capture and storage, or absorbing them by planting trees.
"The thought before was that we could get increasing temperatures even after net zero," said another co-author, Prof Piers Forster from the University of Leeds, UK.
"But we now expect nature to be kind to us and if we are able to achieve net zero, we hopefully won't get any further temperature increase; and if we are able to achieve net zero greenhouse gases, we should eventually be able to reverse some of that temperature increase and get some cooling." '
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Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity', August 9, 2021
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