'Russia has dug a hole for itself in the Donbass. The military situation is stalemated, and Russia is under economic sanctions. It may think that attacks elsewhere in Ukraine will break that stalemate. But that would only result in more sanctions and deepen the hole. A better course for Russia would be a graceful exit through a negotiated political resolution that respects those Russian interests that are legitimate but restores the Donbass to Ukraine’s sovereign control.
No such negotiations are likely until after the March Ukrainian presidential election. At that point, negotiations should pick up on suggestions made by both Putin and Poroshenko that an international peacekeeping force be deployed to the Donbass. The peacekeeping force would be accompanied by an interim United Nations administrative authority tasked with preparing for elections in the Donbass and overseeing implementation of political and economic elements of an overall settlement based on the two Minsk agreements. Russia would thus turn over security of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the Donbass to the international community and withdraw its forces back across the Ukrainian-Russian border, returning the Donbass to Ukrainian sovereignty and control. International sanctions imposed on Russia for its actions in the Donbass would be lifted.
This resolution to the Donbass would still leave Crimea unresolved. But it would be a first step toward getting Russia’s relations with the United States and Europe back into a more manageable framework: cooperating with Russia where they can and standing up for their principles where they and Russia disagree, but managing those disagreements so that they do not lead to confrontation or conflict. A return to such a framework would benefit the interests of everyone, including Russia itself.''Putin’s tactics follow a familiar pattern: identify an opportunity to advance his view of Russian interests, mount a limited military operation to exploit that opportunity, and see whether it provokes any serious international condemnation or military response. If not, up the stakes and expand the operation.
In the nearly two months since Russia attacked the Ukrainian naval vessels, there has been almost no international response. As a result, Russia may believe it will face little resistance to further attacks on Ukrainian territory or territorial waters, much as it concluded in 2008 prior to attacking Georgia or in 2014 when pivoting from annexing Crimea to attacking the Donbass. But prudent steps taken now could help deter further aggression in the first place.
Such measures should cover a wide spectrum of diplomatic, economic, and preventive military steps. On the diplomatic side, European and American leaders should weigh in to condemn past aggression against Ukraine and warn against any further such action.
On the economic side, the European Union and United States should introduce sanctions tied specifically to Russia’s unilateral claim to control the Kerch Straits and access to the Sea of Azov. The United States should also redouble efforts to persuade Germany to defer the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, at least as long as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine continues—or better yet, to cancel it altogether.
On the military side, major European countries and the United States should increase their presence in the Black Sea and conduct regular port visits to Odessa and other Ukrainian ports in the area. International observers should be placed on Ukrainian ships as they transit the Kerch Strait. It would also be prudent to establish an international civilian observer presence in Ukrainian territory north of Crimea, near Mykolaiv, Melitopol, and Berdyansk. The United States and European allies should accelerate and increase planned assistance to Ukraine’s armed forces, with a focus on naval, coastal defense, and air defense capabilities. And the United States and allied countries should work with Turkey to reinforce freedom of navigation activities in the Black Sea.
Russia has dug a hole for itself in the Donbass. The military situation is stalemated, and Russia is under economic sanctions. It may think that attacks elsewhere in Ukraine will break that stalemate. But that would only result in more sanctions and deepen the hole. A better course for Russia would be a graceful exit through a negotiated political resolution that respects those Russian interests that are legitimate but restores the Donbass to Ukraine’s sovereign control.
No such negotiations are likely until after the March Ukrainian presidential election. At that point, negotiations should pick up on suggestions made by both Putin and Poroshenko that an international peacekeeping force be deployed to the Donbass. The peacekeeping force would be accompanied by an interim United Nations administrative authority tasked with preparing for elections in the Donbass and overseeing implementation of political and economic elements of an overall settlement based on the two Minsk agreements. Russia would thus turn over security of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the Donbass to the international community and withdraw its forces back across the Ukrainian-Russian border, returning the Donbass to Ukrainian sovereignty and control. International sanctions imposed on Russia for its actions in the Donbass would be lifted.
This resolution to the Donbass would still leave Crimea unresolved. But it would be a first step toward getting Russia’s relations with the United States and Europe back into a more manageable framework: cooperating with Russia where they can and standing up for their principles where they and Russia disagree, but managing those disagreements so that they do not lead to confrontation or conflict. A return to such a framework would benefit the interests of everyone, including Russia itself.'
- Stephen J. Hadley (
Source, January 18, 2019)
Context'The opportunity exists to end this war, to restore Ukraine’s control over its Donbas region..'