'China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan have all at one time or another indicated that they want a “responsible” troop withdrawal that helps stabilize Afghanistan. If they are treated as partners and taken into our confidence in the decision-making, they might support a six-month recalibration of the agreement’s target dates. The Taliban will respond differently if the other regional powers support this plan rather than oppose it.
The first step could be to win the support for this proposal from U.S. allies at the NATO ministerial scheduled for February 12. Next, Washington could convene the “troika plus,”..
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Such a recalibration would increase the chances for a successful political settlement and a responsible withdrawal that would protect U.S. and global interests not only in Afghanistan but in the Asian regions surrounding it. Washington should use both revived diplomacy and the leverage of its remaining 2,500 troops to build the regional consensus required to implement an agreement or manage a continuing conflict. Such a consensus is the minimal basis for the cooperation the Biden administration will need to advance other objectives, including managing climate change, pursuing the campaign against ISIS, relaxing tensions with Iran, and engaging in constructive economic competition with China.''Washington could seek to adjust the agreement by negotiating a one-time, six-month recalibration of the deadline for troop withdrawal together with recalculated target dates for its other obligations, including the Taliban’s counter-terrorism commitments, keyed to the actual rather than putative start of the negotiations. To make it clear that rescheduling the deadline is a step toward implementing rather than reneging on the agreement, the Biden administration should seek to form an international consensus in support of such a change before approaching the Taliban and Afghan government.
China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan have all at one time or another indicated that they want a “responsible” troop withdrawal that helps stabilize Afghanistan. If they are treated as partners and taken into our confidence in the decision-making, they might support a six-month recalibration of the agreement’s target dates. The Taliban will respond differently if the other regional powers support this plan rather than oppose it.
Implementation of Policy AdjustmentThe first step could be to win the support for this proposal from U.S. allies at the NATO ministerial scheduled for February 12. Next, Washington could convene the “troika plus,” a grouping formed by Khalilzad that includes the United States, Russia, and China (the troika) plus Pakistan. Iran has so far declined to join, but its position might change after the Biden administration re-enters the nuclear deal (JCPOA) and rescinds sanctions. The troika plus could issue a communique supporting the U.S. proposal while reaffirming the commitment to withdraw all troops. Qatar, which provides a base for the Taliban’s diplomatic arm, could also help persuade the Taliban to accept the plan.
If the regional states refuse to support such a proposal, Washington should proceed with the scheduled withdrawal while maintaining verification mechanisms and political support for the Afghan peace negotiations. Trying to leave a counter-terrorism force in Afghanistan against the will of both the Taliban and the landlocked country’s neighbors, however, would guarantee the war’s continuation. And, rather than limiting terrorism, it would intensify the conflict that provides international terrorist groups with access to Afghanistan.
If, on the other hand, the region agrees, the Taliban, which has spent years lobbying for international recognition and which relies on Pakistan for its leadership’s safe haven and Qatar for its diplomacy, would be hard-pressed to resist.
Such a recalibration would increase the chances for a successful political settlement and a responsible withdrawal that would protect U.S. and global interests not only in Afghanistan but in the Asian regions surrounding it. Washington should use both revived diplomacy and the leverage of its remaining 2,500 troops to build the regional consensus required to implement an agreement or manage a continuing conflict. Such a consensus is the minimal basis for the cooperation the Biden administration will need to advance other objectives, including managing climate change, pursuing the campaign against ISIS, relaxing tensions with Iran, and engaging in constructive economic competition with China.'
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How Biden can bring U.S troops home from Afghanistan, January 11, 2021
'Like so many others, he says security is the biggest concern. Although he supports the US military’s withdrawal, he points out that the government forces are struggling with a lack of resources and technology.''Approximately 70 per cent of Afghanistan is not under government control and it is estimated that just under 20 cent is ruled by the Taliban, according to Long War Journal.
About half of the country remains disputed territory.
“I don’t think the Taliban can come in again with the same structure as they did when they were in power in the 90s,” says Mr Akbar, a father of six whose eldest daughter hopes to study economics next year.
“My people are not the people they were 40 years ago. They know about business, they have education, and knowledge from other countries.”
Afghanistan’s GDP grew by more than $15 billion between 2002 and 2019, to $19.29bn. Yet, corruption within the Afghan government and inconsistent enforcement of tax and regulatory policies has hampered economic growth.
“We had no formal trade relationships with other countries while the Taliban were ruling. The international community helped us to build this country to what it is today. We have developed drastically, but whether it’s enough is another question,” says Mr Akbar.
Like so many others, he says security is the biggest concern. Although he supports the US military’s withdrawal, he points out that the government forces are struggling with a lack of resources and technology.
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During the Taliban’s previous reign, women were banished indoors and forced to wear the burqa at all times in public. The concept of female entrepreneurs was non-existent.
“Business is important for women because economic power gives women more rights and more involvement in politics,” says Ms Haidari.
For many women, being able to financially support their families means they are given an unspoken permission to be more independent – that could be simply spending time with friends, not wearing a headscarf, or living in their own places. If they lose their income, they will also lose their freedom.'
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Afghan business owners fear increasing Taliban violence as US troops leave, January 19, 2021
'For Afghan locals in the crucial rural regions the message was always clear: The International Security Assistance Force was the visitor, while the Taliban was the resident.'
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Counterterrorism or Counterinsurgency? Biden’s Coming Afghanistan Dilemma, December 16, 2020
Context'..foreign forces are to leave Afghanistan by May 2021..'(Peace) - '..Sadly, my generation had to relearn the lessons of Vietnam in Iraq and Afghanistan .. to do everything in our power to avoid more wars..'(Ethics) - '..fighting corruption, defending against authoritarianism, and advancing human rights .. strengthening .. our middle class. .. It is past time to end the forever wars .. zero emissions by 2050 .. liberty.' - BidenNuremberg chief prosecutor .. his motto is “law not war”..'Turkmenistan, Afghanistan Launch New Infrastructure Projects To Bolster Afghan Economy, January 17, 2021