'The potential for the conflict to escalate beyond conventional attacks was on display over the weekend when Russia held a nuclear exercise, personally overseen by Putin, that included the test-firing of missiles capable of delivering atomic bombs. The timing was seen as particularly menacing.
“We can blow each other to smithereens in about half an hour,” said Gottemoeller, who is now a lecturer at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation..''Katz argues that Russia’s threats against democratic Ukraine are only just the beginning: He also fears Russian efforts to destabilize adjacent areas “like the Western Balkans or the South Caucasus — spaces where there’s already strategic competition.”
“Call that Cold War, Part 2,” Katz said. “It will have a dramatic impact, rippling beyond Ukraine.”
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“Even if there is a decrease of this Russian tide against Ukraine, it won’t disappear, it will come back again, so we need to prepare for longer periods of intense escalatory situations with Russia and Putin,” Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said in an interview.
“Eastern allies will want to have more U.S. troops on their soil, they will want more assurance measures,” added Liana Fix, a political scientist and Russia expert at the Körber Foundation in Berlin who is on sabbatical at the Marshall Fund.
Fix said the crisis is likely to lead to changes in NATO’s strategy. For example, the alliance’s ”strategic concept,” which is now undergoing revision, “will have to address these questions,” she said.
Gottemoeller noted that the last strategic concept published in 2011 said Europe was at peace and Russia was not an adversary.
Now, “there will have to be a robust defense and deterrence of Russia,” she said.
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Others say the last Cold War with Moscow holds other lessons for keeping a lid on things.
A new analysis by Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank that advocates a less interventionist foreign policy, proposes that the opposing sides agree that Ukraine declare neutrality between Russia and NATO.
It cited previous examples, including Finland and Austria during the Cold War.
“After becoming neutral, Belgium, Austria, and Finland flourished as prosperous, free, and independent societies,” the report says. “Sweden, Switzerland, and Ireland have also prospered in peace and freedom for many decades as neutral states. Agreed neutrality would much improve the political position of Ukraine.”
That sort of neutrality might not go over well in Kyiv, however, which sees itself as firmly allied with Western democratic values and institutions.
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The potential for the conflict to escalate beyond conventional attacks was on display over the weekend when Russia held a nuclear exercise, personally overseen by Putin, that included the test-firing of missiles capable of delivering atomic bombs. The timing was seen as particularly menacing.
“We can blow each other to smithereens in about half an hour,” said Gottemoeller, who is now a lecturer at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. She anticipates that new attempts will be made to engage Moscow to avoid the kind of escalation neither side wants.
“I can imagine that we will continue, but I’ll be honest with you, I think there’s going to have to be some pause and reflection to see what is going to be possible now going forward in terms of strategic stability dialogue,” she said, referring to disarmament talks and other confidence-building measures to lower military tensions.
That will require a more aggressive diplomatic approach to match the West’s military response to Russia’s aggression, the experts say.
Katz believes humanitarian and other foreign aid will also need to increase, particularly if Russia follows through on its threat to capture Ukraine and unseat its government.
“If the Russians really come in and destroy the country and its infrastructure, it will be a massive amount of resources needed to help Ukrainians rebuild,” he said.
More broadly, countering Russia will also require a much greater emphasis on using such “soft power” means to build goodwill among the struggling democracies on Russia’s doorstep, which was a critical element of the U.S. strategy during the Cold War.
“This is a region that has a number of challenges,” Katz said, citing government corruption and arms trafficking. “You have to factor in that human security element as well.”
The U.S. will have to “put the soft power resources to match the hard power resources,” he added.'
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‘Cold War, Part 2’: How Putin is dragging America back to the bad old days, February 21, 2022
ContextPutin’s absurd, angry spectacle will be a turning point in his long reign