'But a principal lesson from the past year is that the risk of escalation is overblown. Ukraine is in a defensive war to recapture its own territory. As for the Russian autocrat, he has nothing left to escalate with other than manpower and nuclear weapons. If the West adequately arms Ukraine, he cannot win with the former and is very unlikely to resort to the latter, which would alienate his most important ally, China. A tactical nuclear strike by Russia would be one of history’s greatest acts of strategic self-immolation, cementing Russia’s pariah status for decades.
This is a pivotal moment in 21st-century history and a critical juncture for U.S. interests, leadership and prestige. The crucial objective should be fortifying Ukraine so that Russia’s unwarranted war is understood by dictators as a cautionary tale — and not as a template for remaking the world to their liking.''Nearly a year after Vladimir Putin unleashed carnage in Ukraine — a war triggered by Kyiv’s aspiration to be fully democratic, pluralistic, European and forever free of Moscow’s yoke — the West’s overarching goal must be ensuring that the Russian tyrant gains nothing by his aggression. To allow an outcome that rewards the Kremlin in any way would be a moral travesty. It would also deal a potentially lethal blow to the principle on which Western stability and civilized international conduct rests: that sovereign states cannot be invaded, subjugated and subjected to mass slaughter with impunity.
To thwart Russia and safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty, the United States and its European allies have little choice but to intensify their military, economic and diplomatic support for Kyiv. That means equipping Ukrainian forces with more decisive weapons and in greater numbers, imposing more aggressive sanctions on Moscow and galvanizing a more muscular international coalition to isolate and ostracize Russia.
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The top priority is weaponry .. Those include more U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launchers .. Kyiv will need greater numbers of almost every type of weaponry — artillery shells, which it is firing at a rate of nearly 100,000 per month; fighting vehicles; advanced drones; and, especially, high-tech air defense systems. The United States and its allies, especially Germany, should accelerate their production and supply of air defense systems to blunt Russia’s systematic campaign to pulverize Ukrainian power stations and degrade critical infrastructure.
Kyiv will also need advanced Western fighter jets. Providing that air capability has been ruled out for now by Mr. Biden, in the case of U.S.-made F-16s. He should reconsider on the condition that Kyiv commits that the jets will be used to defend Ukraine on its own territory, not for attacks inside Russia. Sooner or later, the West will need to provide Ukraine with weapons systems that not only help to end the war but also dissuade Russia from launching new ones. The most effective deterrent will be a convincing array of military muscle on the ground and in the skies — as well as, eventually, NATO membership and the security guarantee it provides.
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Washington and its allies have other levers at their disposal to squeeze Putin’s regime and its enablers and supporters. Western companies that have not yet severed ties with Russia can be pressed to do so. The price ceiling on Russian oil exports, set at $60 a barrel by the G-7 last year, could be lowered further, slowing the flow of revenue that undergirds Putin’s war machine. The European Council should also take up the question of banning imports of Russian gas, both to deprive Moscow of an easy source of revenue and a means of political leverage.
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But a principal lesson from the past year is that the risk of escalation is overblown. Ukraine is in a defensive war to recapture its own territory. As for the Russian autocrat, he has nothing left to escalate with other than manpower and nuclear weapons. If the West adequately arms Ukraine, he cannot win with the former and is very unlikely to resort to the latter, which would alienate his most important ally, China. A tactical nuclear strike by Russia would be one of history’s greatest acts of strategic self-immolation, cementing Russia’s pariah status for decades.
This is a pivotal moment in 21st-century history and a critical juncture for U.S. interests, leadership and prestige. The crucial objective should be fortifying Ukraine so that Russia’s unwarranted war is understood by dictators as a cautionary tale — and not as a template for remaking the world to their liking.'
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How to break the stalemate in Ukraine, February 18, 2023
ContextThe Case Against Incrementalism - '..an obvious policy recommendation for the West: help Ukraine win as fast as possible.' - Michael McFaul'As long as Ukraine has enough ammunition..''..exhausting [Russian] offensive potential, then taking the initiative later this spring.'