Expert opinionON THE BRINK OF A COMMON GRAVEBy Victor Perevedentsev
September 2006
SourceThe recently published results of the All-Russia population census for 2002 make it possible to judge the demographic future of Russia
The present situation is usually described as a “demographic crisis”. But this is hardly correct, for this “crisis” has existed for 40 years now and there is no end in sight.
Everyone has probably heard that since 1992 more people die every year than are born. However, few people know that this situation came about because of what happened in Russia in the 1960s. In 1965, for the first time in the country’s history, the number of children born was smaller than what was necessary for the simple quantitative replacement of the parent generation. Then, the birth rate continued to decline rapidly. In 1968 only 1.8 million children were born in the Russian Federation, as against 2.8 million in 1960, that is, 40 percent fewer.
In the last decade of the 20th century, the children of the 1960s became parents themselves. The further reduction of childbirth (the average number of children in a family) continues. Besides, the death rate has increased. All this has led to a great natural decrease in the population. True, it was largely compensated by the flow of migrants.
The last population census has shown that, along with many other things.
The number of deaths and birthsIn 2002 there were 1.8 million fewer people in Russia than in the 1989 census. The natural decrease was 7.4 million (20.5 million were born and 27.9 million died), but 5.9 million were compensated by the migration surplus.
As we see, the total decrease is not very great. However, the adverse aspect of the situation was that the number of children has sharply dropped. In 1989 there were 34 million Russians under the age of 15, and in 2002 only 23.7 million, that is, 30 percent fewer. As for other age brackets, the number of people grew: young people (15 – 29 years) by eight percent, old folks (above 75) by 10 percent, elderly people (from 60 to 75) even by 22 percent.
It is precisely due to the age composition of the population of Russia that there will be a further dying out, moreover, at an ever greater pace.
Most children are born by women between the age of 20 and 35. At the time of the last census there were 31.9 million people that age, 15.9 million being women. Twenty years after the last census about 23 million people will reach that age (11.6 million women). Two years ago, 1,397,000 children were born. With the birth rate coefficient remaining at that level, there will only be about one million children born in Russia in 2022.
The number of deaths will grow, first of all due to the ageing of the population. The numerous generation born after WWII will enter the elderly age bracket groups.
The rate of the dying out of Russia’s population will depend on many circumstances, particularly, on the government demographic policy for fighting premature death, and encouraging births, and migration flows. So far nothing has been done in this sphere. The problem has been recognized and thought over “at the top”. I shall now quote the words of the president in his first state of the nation address to the Federal Assembly in 2000: “Every year there are fewer and fewer of us, citizens of Russia. For several years now the country’s population has gone down by 750,000 people a year on the average. If this tendency persists, the survival of the nation will be in jeopardy. We are threatened with the prospect of becoming a senile nation.”
Well said, truthfully and impressively. However, these words do not seem to have become a guide for action at the lower managerial levels. The president’s administration, for instance, is pursuing an outrageously stupid migration policy aimed at stemming the influx of people to Russia, while the Duma is still unable to change the ridiculously meagre children’s allowance from the government – 70 roubles per child a month.
Meanwhile the situation is becoming worse all the time. During the past five years the natural decrease in the population of Russia has been about one million people annually.
The country wants to work. But will it be able to?Quite a few predictions of Russia’s demographic development have been made recently. All of them, including those made by the UN, are gloomy. By the middle of the 21st century the population of Russia will be from 80 to 100 million (in October 2002 it was 145 million). As for its age composition, it will not only be old, but simply senile, with most of the people being pension-age, quite a few being pre-pension age and a small number of young people, especially children. There will be a great preponderance of women.
In the year of the last population census, a very good book written by A. Antonov and a group of co-authors came off the press, unfortunately in a meagre circulation (only 500 copies), entitled Demographic Processes in Russia in the 21st Century. (There is table from the book at the bottom of this article.)
The most probable size of the population of Russia in the middle of this century will be 93 million, while the death rate is constantly growing.
The process of dying out will have a very adverse effect on the life of the country as a whole and on its citizens. Here is just one economic aspect.
In the near future the number of the able-bodied population (from 16 to 60 years of age for men and from 16 to 55 for women) will rapidly decrease, and within this group the share of prepension-age persons will grow and that of young people dwindle.
During the 2002 census there were 11.6 million people between 45 and 50, and 6.9 million between 6 and 10. When the former get older than the working age, the latter will begin to enter it. Among the older people, the group of persons of the same age numbers 2.3 million, while among the younger people – 1.4 million, that is, 900,000 less. Before reaching pension age the group of older people will slightly decrease. More than half a million people of working age die annually (in 2001 650,000 died). Consequently, the able-bodied population will go down by more than a million in a year. The share of partially and fully disabled will increase, because along with ageing the number of invalids grows. Besides, the skills of older age groups will become obsolete, and retraining people of this age is more difficult. Thus the labour resources will rapidly diminish quantitatively and deteriorate qualitatively. It is these resources that will, most probably, serve as the principal brake on the economic progress of Russia. And this, in turn, will tell on the well-being of the people.
The view is current in our society that the present “demographic crisis” is allegedly a consequence of the abortive reforms, low standards of living and mass impoverishment. And that everything will “turn out allright” along with the growth of the economy. Blissful ignorance !..
We know that we know nothing…Let’s look at other countries around the world. Low indices for the birth rate are also typical of Germany and Japan (100 women there give birth to 130 children), and in Spain and Italy they are still lower. I think it would be worthwhile to look deeper into the reasons for the unwillingness of parents nowadays to have children. To do this it is necessary to develop demographic science.
There are no demographic research institutes in Russia. In the USSR there were two academic demographic institutes: one in Leningrad and the other in Kiev. The former was closed in 1933 after the great famine, and the latter after the All-Union population census of 1937 branded as “sabotage”. The attempts to reopen at least one of them after WWII have failed. However, in post-Soviet times Ukrainian scholars have succeeded in reopening their institute in Kiev, whereas we are still marking time. Unfortunately, demography is very strongly politicized, myths gain the upper hand over real knowledge. Things have gone so far that some of our parliamentarians, in order to do away with the “demographic crisis”, are demanding a ban on abortions. (I heard this myself from deputies to the State Duma -- Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Alexander Chuyev). There will be more personal tragedies as a result, but nothing more…
It’s a pity that the major social reforms in Russia are implemented without doing the proper demographic study first. It’s absolutely clear to me that the replacement of free education at any level with a paid one will have a negative effect on the birth rate. And this aspect has not been discussed at all.
All demographic calculations show that Russia is unfortunately unable to return to natural population growth. The “point of return” was reached a long time ago. There are so few potential young parents that even at all possible birth rate levels they will be unable to give birth to enough children to replace the dead. The only possible way out is to increase the net migration flow.
I have no doubt that it is possible to slightly increase the birth rate and lower the death rate if an active and sound demographic policy is pursued. The entire demographic history of the world shows that to diminish the number of deaths is easier than to enhance the number of births.
Our low average lifespan and men’s superhigh death rate are largely due to alcohol abuse. This has been shown by thorough research and a considerable drop in the number of deaths during the perestroika anti-alcoholic campaign. I am sure that the producers and distributors of alcoholic drinks in their frenzied drive for superprofits seriously damage the demographic situation.
Even the natural decrease in the population of Russia could be reduced. And to prevent the general decrease an influx of migrants, say, 800,000 or even less – 600,000, is a must. Without them we shall not get along if we wish the country and people well. This means that the present government migration policy should be changed to absolutely the opposite one. We must attract migrants and help them settle in Russia.