Less rumble in the jungle - The Economist

Congo

Less rumble in the jungle

Jan 29th 2007
From Economist.com
Source

The UN is trying to restore normality in Congo, one of the world’s most troubled countries

THERE are tougher places Ban Ki-moon could have chosen for his first trip as secretary-general of the United Nations. Perhaps the Middle East or the Korean peninsulas are more troubled than Congo, but not by much. The vast central African country’s recent war cost millions of lives and large tracts remain an ungoverned mess. But the gloom is lifting a little. Elections in the middle of last year were a qualified success, and Mr Ban is now hoping that he can help Congo move towards stability and away from chaos.

There is reason for hope. Between 1998 and 2003 the war in Congo sucked in eight other African countries, and around 4m people may have died (mainly as a result of starvation and disease). Given this background the successful election, in a huge country with little working infrastructure, was nigh miraculous. Joseph Kabila, the son of a former president of Congo assassinated in 2001, retained the presidency. Fears that his rival, Jean-Pierre Bemba, would contest the result and let loose his personal militias were unfounded. Instead, Mr Bemba finally accepted defeat. Mr Ban said, correctly, that the past year had seen “remarkable progress”.

Mr Kabila, nonetheless, has a difficult political balancing act to perform. To maintain the fragile peace he must give a share of power not only to Mr Bemba but other militia leaders and warlords too. And though months have passed since the elections, a government has yet to be formed. Perhaps the international attention that preceded Mr Ban’s visit shamed Mr Kabila and his lieutenants into action. But the announcement on January 24th that the cabinet would have 59 ministers and vice-ministers—enough for every faction to get its share of the spoils—shows just how hard it will be to govern Congo.

And in eastern Congo, the situation remains grim. Untamed warlords continue to terrorise the local population. And recently, militias associated with Hutus from Rwanda (the same lot responsible for that country’s genocide in 1994) have taken to kidnap, rape, torture and demanding ransoms near a national park close to the border between the two countries. But militias and Rwandan génocidaires are not the only threat. The Congolese army was supposed to reintegrate fighters of different factions into a national force. But at the moment it is almost as big a threat to civilians as the groups it is meant to defend them against.

One of the main reasons for Mr Ban’s trip to Congo was to visit MONUC, the UN’s peacekeeping force there. It is the biggest UN deployment in the world, with 16,500 soldiers and 100 aircraft. Rick Neal of Refugees International, who has travelled extensively in Congo, hopes Mr Ban’s visit will do two things in particular. He hopes for a narrowing of MONUC’s focus to a primary mission of protecting civilians, and to get it to enforce the embargo on arms into Congo and the export of goods which are used to pay for more arms.

But MONUC is still undermanned, underarmed, and without the intelligence and logistical support it would need to protect civilians properly. The force’s mandate is likely to be renewed by the Security Council in February, but it probably will not be given new troops. For one thing, it has been a deadly mission: almost 100 peacekeepers have died in Congo. And in any case, the world’s supply of peacekeepers has been squeezed. The UN currently fields 74,000, and peacemakers are looking for troops for Somalia, so the Ethiopian army can withdraw from its recent invasion there. The Congo mission will have to make do at its current size.

Still, Mr Neal says, Congo represents “a tremendous success story for the UN”. The tough decision to authorise a large force after the war ended in 2003 was a brave one that has made peace in Congo at least a possibility. The next step for Mr Kabila’s government will be to establish the bare minimum of governance: running a disciplined army, observing the rule of law and restoring basic infrastructure around the country. If this can be done, perhaps Congo’s tremendous natural wealth can help to put it on the road to real recovery.