'..The USA remains unreliable as a defense partner .. the US government is being manipulated by a pro-Putin wing of the Republican Party .. the US cannot be relied upon..''There has been a great deal happening in and out of Ukraine this week—so I will try to cover a number of different topics this week. However, the continuing Russian campaign against Kharkiv might be the most poignant, as it reveals a great deal of why Europe needs to make sure Ukraine wins. It also reveals the hollowness underlaying the US policy that Ukraine should not make attacks into Russia.
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..there is no vote scheduled on any aid bill for Ukraine, not timeline to consider a vote, and no plan to negotiate a new bill. Either Johnson will have to backtrack again and drop his new red line—or aid to Ukraine is dead.
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Btw, like with Kharkiv, this has to be another clarion call to Europe. The USA remains unreliable as a defense partner. Right now the US government is being manipulated by a pro-Putin wing of the Republican Party, and after the November election this could get 10 times worse. European states need to plan on supporting Ukraine on their own—the US cannot be relied upon. Its no longer a contingency to plan for—its the reality.
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All this war has shown is that if Russia decides it wants to continue to make large attacks—that is probably not a bad thing for Ukraine. Its noticeable how dangerous it is to go on the offensive. For the last month, for instance, Russia has been on the offensive, and photographed losses for the Russians have been running at 3-1 compared to that of Ukrainians.
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..it will be very much in Ukraine’s interest for Russia to attack and risk the higher losses.
As it is clear that Ukraine will not be going on the offensive anytime soon—maybe for all of 2024. US aid being cut off means that Ukraine will have enough to do holding their defensive positions, rather than planning offensives that can accelerate Ukrainian losses. As such, Ukraine will want to use 2024 to attrit Russian forces as much as possible, and that is a process that will be greatly accelerated by Russian offensives.
So, having the Russians attack is probably a good thing for Ukraine. Particularly if they are relying with hastily trained soldiers with refurbished military equipment.'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien,
Weekend Update #75: The Russian Campaign to Kill Kharkiv, April 7, 2024
Context(Ukraine must win) - '..the US [is] not providing aid to Ukraine .. [the US] shows a total lack of understanding of war..'(Havana Syndrome)(Russian hybrid warfare)(US weakness) - '..Moscow has committed an act of war against the United States..''Russia is trying to sabotage European railways..' - FT