'..the Russian .. doctrine is now taken to the ultimate end: the redrawing of borders in the post-Soviet space. In so doing, Russia threatens all of its neighbors and challenges the European order as such .. [Europe's] Russia strategy can no longer be based on the illusion of partnership.'<blockquote>'..the full application of a strategy that has long been in the making. The only novelty is that, with the planned incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation, this doctrine is now taken to the ultimate end: the redrawing of borders in the post-Soviet space. In so doing, Russia threatens all of its neighbors and challenges the European order as such.
Nothing so far suggests that Russia will limit itself in these aspirations. After years of pressuring neighbors without much resistance, the Kremlin feels emboldened in its strategy and has little reason for self-restraint. Moscow's aggressive quest for its "near abroad" has become an ideological mission to fight the West, one that has left all rational grounds and that ignores all costs and consequences, including those to Russia itself.
Opposition to this policy within Russia is effectively non-existent, as decisions are taken by a small circle of hardliners, parliament serves to rubber-stamp them, and civil society and independent media have been silenced. Ordinary Russians, in turn, overwhelmingly support Putin's actions and assertiveness, at over two-thirds according to recent polls.
In this situation, brakes on Russian interventionism can only be imposed from outside. Ukrainians have given a powerful example of resistance, through the courage of hundreds of thousands of protesters and the remarkable moderation of their new government in the face of Russian provocations.
Yet Ukraine, and no less other neighbors such as Georgia and Moldova that have equally chosen a path of democracy and European integration, will not be able to resist mounting Russian aggressiveness. Only Europe, in concert with the United States, can put a check on the Putin doctrine before it drags the Eastern half of the continent into the abyss.
..
Europe must now roll out travel bans and asset freezes against those in the Russian leadership who are directly responsible for this escalation, followed by a swift extension to include the 300 or so influentials, and their families, who control much of the country's politics and business today.
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In parallel, Europe must sign the association and free trade agreements with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia within weeks. A snap summit of EU leaders could be held in Kiev that, ideally, would finally state the long-overdue EU membership perspective for Eastern neighbors, and substantiate this prospect with a comprehensive assistance package to see would-be members through the political, economic and social reforms necessary for European integration. Politically and materially, this would send a strong signal of commitment to Europe's East, and one that Russia will find hard to match.
Its neighborhood policy will have to be redefined as an enlargement policy, while its Russia strategy can no longer be based on the illusion of partnership. Economic ties with Russia, whether its oil and gas imports or business activities in the EU, will have to be reconsidered. And Europe's multinational institutions, whether OSCE, Council of Europe or NATO, must be strengthened and empowered to once again serve as guarantors of collective development and security -- open but not hostage to Russia.
This is an enormous agenda, comparable only to the challenge of reuniting Europe after the end of the Cold War.
Much as it successfully answered that call, the EU must now muster the political will, foresight and vision to save its Eastern neighborhood from falling victim to the Putin doctrine.'
- Joerg Forbrig,
Crimea crisis: Europe must finally check the Putin doctrine, March 14, 2014</blockquote>
Context<blockquote>
Ukraine - '..The economy needs a total structural overhaul .. the work Central Europe and the Baltic states did in the 1990s.''The U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015..' - '..an end to the ban on exports..'</blockquote>