'Float like a Butterfly, Sting Like a Bee.'
- Muhammad Ali
'Like Russia, Iran is now forced to turn its attention to domestic issues .. the government’s poor handling of water shortages during a severe, nationwide drought..''By imposing sanctions, the US wants to make Russia’s domestic problems strong enough to force Moscow to turn its focus inward and limit its foreign adventures. And more sanctions might be on the way. A bill introduced in Congress last week would restrict investment in Russia’s sovereign debt, putting further pressure on the ruble. Washington is thus signaling that it is by no means out of ammunition.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the sanctions introduced this month are a response to Russia’s occupation of Crimea and its ongoing support of the Assad regime in Syria. The recent poisoning of a former Russian spy in the United Kingdom also undoubtedly played a role. But the sanctions shouldn’t be seen solely as a reaction to these events. The US is trying to send Russia a broader message: If Moscow keeps asserting itself in places like Ukraine, Syria, and Georgia, it will face consequences..
..
That the rial has so sharply declined as a result of this uncertainty is a sign that Iran’s economy remains vulnerable and its security tenuous, regardless of its rising clout in Syria and Iraq. Like Russia, Iran is now forced to turn its attention to domestic issues rather than its efforts at external expansion. For example, the government last week introduced its own exchange rate of 42,000 rials to the dollar—far better than the market rate, which currently hoovers around 60,000 rials to the dollar—to try to stem the currency’s decline.
The large-scale protests in January and the more localized ones in Khuzestan and Isfahan provinces last week indicate that there is consistent and widespread dissatisfaction with the regime. In Isfahan, farmers are again protesting the government’s poor handling of water shortages during a severe, nationwide drought, which has made it difficult if not impossible for farmers to make a living. As a result, fewer crops are being grown domestically, increasing Iran’s need to import food. But with a weaker rial, food imports become more expensive.
One of the catalysts of the January protests was a spike in the price of food staples. Following those protests, Iran—under growing budgetary pressure as it allocates ever more funds to fighting wars—was forced to walk back planned subsidy cuts to appease the public. This forced Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to dip into Iran’s reserve fund to ensure funding for the military wouldn’t be slashed. But a weaker rial will certainly make the Iranians think twice about their military funding and could impact Iran’s ability to continue waging war at the scale that it has in the past couple of years.'
-
The Far Reaches of US Soft Power, April 16, 2018
Context'..Russian oligarchs and elites who profit from this corrupt system..''..Rohani has warned that water shortages .. threatening [Iran].'