'..the key is not simply deterring further Russian aggression in the near term, but convincing the Kremlin that its neo-imperial moves will leave it worse off in the long run. Otherwise, Russia’s annexation of Crimea won’t be the end of the story, but just the opening salvo of a new period of strife in Europe.''..sanctions alone are not enough. Western economic pressure must be matched by U.S. and European assistance to Ukraine’s military (something now being debated by the U.S. Congress), and by stronger security guarantees to the Baltic states, who see themselves squarely in Russia’s crosshairs. Washington likewise would do well to revisit its now-moribund plans for missile defenses in Europe — but this time do so not just as a counter to Iran’s strategic arsenal but as a hedge against Russian aggression as well.
Whatever the particulars, the approach adopted by the U.S. and Europe must be informed by the realization that they are playing a long game, one in which the key is not simply deterring further Russian aggression in the near term, but convincing the Kremlin that its neo-imperial moves will leave it worse off in the long run. Otherwise, Russia’s annexation of Crimea won’t be the end of the story, but just the opening salvo of a new period of strife in Europe.'
- Ilan Berman,
Western Policy, Post-Crimea, April 7, 2014
'..rethinking our approach to Russia. It is by now patently clear that the “reset” of relations with Moscow so desperately pursued by the Obama administration is pretty much a dead issue. The question is, What comes next? As we begin to reformulate our approach, we should keep in mind that politics begin at home, and Russia’s growing internal disorder is bound to shape how the Kremlin behaves in the years ahead. Reinforcing our support for the political independence of Russia’s former satellites (such as Ukraine and Georgia); doubling down on the role and relevance of NATO; offering real, sustained assistance to Russia on counterterrorism issues — all of these things can help ameliorate the trends now taking shape in Russia, or at least reduce their impact on the rest of the world.'
- Ilan Berman,
The End of Russia, October 7, 2013
Context'Serious economic and social issues across Russia continue to be ignored in Moscow.'