'..China is the only major country in modern times that will grow old before she grows rich.'' “China is really fading from the global scene as a prime mover,” he said.
China now is a lot like Japan was in the 1980s, says Shilling. Its housing bubble has collapsed, a huge run-up in stocks has reversed, and its population is declining. “China won’t disappear, but as far as being the center of attention on the global stage, that is probably over,” says Shilling.
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China’s “glory days of double-digit growth through exports and debt-driven infrastructure spending are over,” Shilling writes in his latest outlook report.
“The international shock and awe resulting from globalization and the shift of manufacturing from North America and Europe to China as well as other emerging economies is essentially finished. China is the only major country in modern times that will grow old before she grows rich.”
In the meantime, Shilling expects commodity prices will continue to decline as a result of China's slowing economy and more instances of China stealing Western technology in order to stay competitive.'
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Gary Shilling: China’s Economic Glory Days Are Over, January 7, 2015
Context '..credit booms tend to undermine productivity growth..''..the Chinese government will simply let the debt party go on until it eventually collapses..''The Chinese geopolitical reality is that it is an isolated country that is also deeply divided internally..''..deflationary impacts..''..not only Brazil is in crisis, but also Russia, and that China is in troubled waters..''..A tightening of financial conditions portends Credit problems way beyond energy and mining..'(Global Credit) - '..More than 11 years ago Dr. Issing recognized the key issue for 2015..'