Russia is a problem to be managed pragmatically and with coolheaded realism .. Prudence and moderation, not hyperbole, will yield tangible results.'..Ultimately, Russia does imperil its neighbors, intervene in its near abroad and exploit liberalism's problems. Likewise, Moscow has shown sophistication and willingness to use modern technologies to intervene in U.S. domestic affairs via its subversion of national elections, SolarWinds hack and other such escapades that challenge U.S. sovereignty. Above all, Russia remains a nuclear power with the military capacity to destroy the U.S. The net result is obvious: Russia cannot be discounted.
Still, the solution is not to overstate the Russian threat, but to recognize that the U.S. needs to address the Russian challenge in cool, hardheaded fashion. Russia seeks—as the U.S. director of national intelligence noted in her recent testimony—to "give itself the ability to push back and force the United States to accommodate Russia's interests." To minimize the risks to the U.S. from this situation requires a nuanced approach.
First, the U.S. should blend defense and deterrence to reduce U.S. domestic vulnerabilities to Russian influence operations and cyber campaigns. Electoral security, revitalized counterintelligence and improved cyber defenses are reasonable. Likewise, the U.S. needs to reinforce its capacity to retaliate for Russian domestic intrusions and communicate its willingness to do so.
Second, Washington must continue stabilizing the bilateral nuclear relationship. Unlike its conventional military power or ideological actions, Russia's nuclear might is a real potential threat. Minimizing it requires that the U.S. avoid an arms race with Moscow and clearly communicate with Russian strategists to avoid miscalculations. Doing so requires engaging Russia, rather than treating it as an inveterate threat and rushing to the ramparts.
Finally, the U.S. should recognize that U.S. and Russian interests are generally not in direct conflict, and that their divergences can be more effectively compartmentalized. The European balance of power is stable; both share an interest in avoiding further unrest in Russia's near abroad and around NATO's eastern flank; and both face domestic challenges that require time and resources. In the longer term, China's rise also presents each side with reasons to moderate bilateral tensions. Deconflicting areas of friction should be the order of the day—a situation President Biden's recent offer to meet Russian leaders acknowledges.
Russia is a problem to be managed pragmatically and with coolheaded realism. The more we lose sight of this situation and instead overstate the Russian threat, the more difficult the relationship will become. Prudence and moderation, not hyperbole, will yield tangible results.'
- Joshua Shifrinson,
Russia: A Problem, Not a Threat, April 21, 2021
Context'Nuclear arms control is one area where Russia expects real cooperation from Team Biden .. interest in climate change .. a potential avenue for Russia-U.S collaboration in the Biden-era..''Russia says it wants Britain and France to become part of wider nuclear arms control talks with the United States as Washington continues to seek China's inclusion in the negotiations.'
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Russia Wants Britain, France To Join Wider Nuclear Talks With U.S., July 29, 2021
China is building a sprawling network of missile silos, satellite imagery appears to show, July 2, 2021
China appears to be expanding its nuclear capabilities, US researchers say in new report, July 28, 2021