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'..A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket .. is substantially cheaper to launch than Ariane.' - Europe’s Arianespace struggles for relevance in SpaceX era

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'..SpaceX has snagged a contract to launch an Italian Earth observation satellite from European launch monopoly and political heavyweight Arianespace.

After spending the better part of a decade treading water as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket came to dominate the global launch market, Arianespace has become increasingly reliant on European Space Agency (ESA) and European Union (EU) agreements that require signatories to launch domestic satellites and spacecraft on the Ariane 5, Ariane 6, and Italian Vega rockets. Save for a few slow-moving technology development programs that have yet to bear any actionable fruit, the company – heavily subsidized by the European Union – has almost completely failed to face the threat posed by SpaceX head-on by prioritizing the development of rockets that can actually compete with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy on cost, performance, and availability.

Instead, over the last five or so years, Arianespace and the European Space Agency have increasingly pursued political agreements and legislation that commit member states to only fly payloads on Ariane 5, Ariane 6, and Vega rockets if at all possible .. There might be a small chance that Italy’s brief taste of freedom to use rockets other than Vega and Ariane 5/6 could encourage other EU members to push back and fight for access to cheaper, more reliable launches..'

- SpaceX snags launch contract from Arianespace after Vega rocket fails twice, October 3, 2021



'..it will mean Europe’s system of allocating production work according to member states’ financial contributions will have to be re-examined, according to several industry executives. Ariane rockets involve an industrial network of more than 600 companies in 13 countries

“These are complexities that Mr Musk doesn’t have as a vertically integrated player,” said Mr Horn. “He is selling the rockets, renting the spaceport, and producing most parts himself. He organises the logistics. There is less workshare and less dependency.”

ESA and Europe’s space industry have begun discussions on how work could be reorganised to eliminate some of the complexities, according to several people with knowledge of the subject. “We need to create the same conditions to propose competitive prices,” said one.'


'..the latest delay to its €4bn next-generation Ariane 6, announced last week, has underlined the group’s vulnerability as it struggles to keep pace with disruptive forces unleashed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX in a drastically changed market.

Jan Wörner, director-general of the European Space Agency, is now hoping EU member states will stump up another €230m to put Ariane 6 on the launch pad by spring 2022, almost two years later than planned.

The rocket, along with the smaller Vega-C version, is Europe’s answer to Mr Musk’s pioneering, reusable Falcon 9, which has sent prices plunging in the $5bn-a-year satellite launch market.

..

The problem is, it will still be substantially more costly than the Falcon models. And the longer the delay, the wider the price gap is likely to be.

..

“When Arianespace, ESA and the national space agencies set out to develop Ariane 6 [in 2014] they underestimated how competitive the commercial space launch market would be by 2020,” said Caleb Henry, analyst at Quilty Analytics, a space industry research group.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, with the manned Crew Dragon spacecraft attached, takes off from Cape Canaveral, Florida, in May this year. It is substantially cheaper to launch than Ariane.

Ever since SpaceX’s Falcon 9 took off a decade ago, life has been getting tougher for Arianespace. According to a report for Nasa in 2018, the average launch cost of $18,500 per kg between 1970 and 2000 was cut by a factor of seven with the Falcon 9.

..

“The industrial situation may have to be reorganised and that could take years,” says Mr Wörner. “In 2014, the decision was to go fast as possible.”

That doesn’t mean reorganisation is impossible. ESA and the industrial partners behind Arianespace are already looking to the next generation, and reusable rockets are on the cards.

But it will mean Europe’s system of allocating production work according to member states’ financial contributions will have to be re-examined, according to several industry executives. Ariane rockets involve an industrial network of more than 600 companies in 13 countries

“These are complexities that Mr Musk doesn’t have as a vertically integrated player,” said Mr Horn. “He is selling the rockets, renting the spaceport, and producing most parts himself. He organises the logistics. There is less workshare and less dependency.”

ESA and Europe’s space industry have begun discussions on how work could be reorganised to eliminate some of the complexities, according to several people with knowledge of the subject. “We need to create the same conditions to propose competitive prices,” said one.'

- Europe’s Arianespace struggles for relevance in SpaceX era, November 4, 2020



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(2022 Moon landing) - ' ..Starship Moon lander .. “probably sooner” than the 2024 target..'