'
23/ Ukraine is better positioned to meet it war aims with continued support; militarily, financially, and most importantly morally. Although Ukraine has its own resourcing issues, it is being a better steward of its military capabilities. Western support will lead to victory.
..
25/ ..The West must stay the course.'
- Jomini of the West, June 1, 2022
'Ending the war means thinking more about the Ukrainian people and their future, and and worrying less about problems that Putin does not in fact have.'
- Timothy Snyder (
Source, May 18. 2022)
'Navalny: "Putin has reminded us all of the “duck test”: if something looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck."
"if someone destroys the independent media, organizes political assassinations, and sticks to his imperial delusions, then he is a madman capable of causing a bloodbath in the center of Europe in the 21st century. And you really shouldn’t embrace him at international forums."'
- Anders Åslund (
Source, May 23, 2022)
'..strategic patience is required for fighting, supporting & prevailing in wars .. freedom must be defended.'19/ '..patience. Wars that begin in the expectation that they will be over quickly, cleanly and gloriously almost never do. There are multiple examples from the 20th century. This war is yet another.
20/ The desire for short wars, with commitment of limited forces, almost always results in them being longer & more expensive because the enemy always gets a vote. For belligerents & their supporters, strategic patience is required for fighting, supporting & prevailing in wars.
..
22/ This war has, again, shown the centrality of good leadership. The most important leader has been President Zelensky. He has carried the weight of Ukraine on his shoulders & reignited in us all the understanding that freedom must be defended.'
- Mick Ryan, June 4, 2022)
'"Western weapons and equipment are helping us to drive the enemy out of our land," .. But he said [much] more was still needed.''“Western weapons and equipment are helping us to drive the enemy out of our land,” Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, wrote on Telegram last week. But he said more was still needed. “At the same time, we are in dire need of weapons that will be able to hit the enemy at a great distance,” he continued. “And this cannot be delayed, because the price of the delay is measured by the lives of people who have protected the world from [Russian fascism].”
With what they already have, the Ukrainians say they’re starting to see results. American M777 howitzers, British FH70 howitzers, and French CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, along with NATO-standard artillery shells, are all now being used by Ukraine’s military on the frontline in the Donbas, said Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.
“The Russian occupiers are receiving a rebuff they did not expect,” he wrote Saturday on Facebook.
..
But to ensure their success, air defense systems are urgently needed. Russia has increased its use of airpower in recent weeks, launching devastating attacks on Donbas cities, crucial infrastructure beyond the frontline, and military installations — while also sowing terror among the local population caught in the crossfire.
“On the ground, the Russian occupants are not as successful as they hoped, but in the air, they can destroy us,” said Kramatorsk Mayor Oleksandr Honcharenko. His office these days — underscoring the danger posed by airstrikes — is in a basement, behind sandbagged windows meant to keep him and his staff safe.'
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'They are carpet-bombing us': Ukrainian troops are getting pounded as they await heavy weapons from the West, June 1, 2022
'..contemporary debates on force structure and military strategy would benefit greatly by looking at the choices the Russian military made and how they ended up in this position.''Russia’s manning issues suggest that future mobilization will face serious problems. In the Russian military, conscripts are sent to units where they receive most of their training, instead of centralized schools. However, the training officers and non-commissioned officers from units either were deployed in some cases or are likely to be used to form additional battalions. This means the remain-behind element for Russian regiments and brigades might not have the personnel to properly train the conscripts currently arriving. The longer this war continues, the greater the disruptive effects will be on training and recruitment. At this stage, it appears Russia is attempting piecemeal solutions by creating reserve battalions on the basis of officers and NCOs allocated to the tentative “third” battalion remaining in current formations. This is a form of partial mobilization, but it cannibalizes an important training component of these units.
Having mobilized substantial manpower, and with access to Western military support, Ukraine now appears positioned to sustain this fight. The Russian campaign floundered not just because it pursued unrealistic political goals, but also because the plan for the invasion did not account for the choices made on force structure, and the limitations they imposed. Russian force employment exacerbated the disadvantages inherent in the force they built. Currently, Russia lacks the manpower to rotate current forces on the battlefield or to conduct further offensives beyond the current campaign in the Donbas. However, Russian forces do appear to enjoy a local-force advantage in the Donbas, and overall long-term challenges raised here may not impede Russian progress in the short term. Much is contingent, and this assessment is not meant to be deterministic.
The arguments we make here are preliminary, and not meant to be predictive of the outcome of battles in the Donbas, or the course of this war. However, contemporary debates on force structure and military strategy would benefit greatly by looking at the choices the Russian military made and how they ended up in this position. There’s much to be said about the primacy of political assumptions, which is one of the most decisive factors in how the Russian armed forces were initially thrown into this war, but equally, it is structural choices that have limited its military’s ability to adjust and sustain combat operations.'
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Not Built for Purpose: The Russian Military’s Ill-Fated Force Design, June 2, 2022
'..Russia is a problem for the West, and it’s not going anywhere.''..This does not mean that Ukraine or its Western backers should pull any punches as they work to defeat Russia’s invasion. They should not. But America and its allies must remain prepared to manage the spectrum of challenges that Russia poses, however beleaguered by war it may be.
Russian power, it’s worth remembering, has gone through fitful cycles of stagnation, decline and resurgence; it would be wise to avoid triumphalism and complacency. Mr. Putin made a mistake but not necessarily a fatal one. As the historian Stephen Kotkin noted, Russia has a remarkable historical capacity for reconstitution. The West’s relatively brief respite from great power competition with Russia in the wake of the Cold War constitutes, he reminded us, “a historical blink of an eye.”
In other words: Russia is a problem for the West, and it’s not going anywhere.'
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Russia Is Down. But It’s Not Out, June 2, 2022
Context'..In the long term, Russia clearly hopes to annex eastern and southern Ukraine; maps to that effect have begun to circulate.' (2014) -
'..Russia .. Here, to lie is to protect the social order, to speak the truth is to destroy the State.’ - Astolphe marquis de Custine'..Negotiations & agreements with Putin have proven meaningless since he always lies. He must lose..''Ukraine has no future without Europe..' - 'The End of Russia..'We Should Say It. Russia Is Fascist - 'The Russian Federation promotes the extreme right everywhere.' - 'Bankrupt Putin & his regime. Give Ukraine what it needs to win.''Ukraine will win, sooner or later, because no fascist state has ever truly prevailed over a free country.'Ukraine - '..Insofar as we wish for peace and democracy, we are going to have to begin by getting the story right.'(Complete withdrawal from Ukraine (Crimea and the Donbas)) - '..Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'