'..The world must understand that Russia is unlikely to escalate the war if transport vessels under NATO or EU protection cross the Black Sea.''The number of threats with no clear pattern is reminiscent of the Russian disinformation strategy of maskirovka: the use of deception, intimidation, and disinformation to bewilder the enemy. In recent years, political observers have recognized these tactics in Russia’s foreign policy, being used for election interference, hybrid warfare, and pro-Kremlin foreign-language propaganda. Regardless of the level of design around Russia’s chaotic information space, maskirovka has been a key strategy directed by the Kremlin at Kyiv and the West since the full-scale invasion last year.
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The consistency and quantity of Russia’s threats are intended to scare Western decision-makers and populations into making concessions. Threats directed at NATO countries have sparked small-scale pacifist demonstrations from Prague to London and New York to protest the alliance’s existence and call for an end to the fighting.
In some cases, the Kremlin itself may have been behind the protests. In France, Russian intelligence agencies were accused of having organized protests demanding an end to Western support for Ukraine. More famously, Russia has made serious efforts to co-opt Germany’s radical right and radical left parties, both of which oppose NATO as well as weapons deliveries to Ukraine. While this strategy has had some limited success in uniting Germany’s political fringes, for the most part, Ukrainian and Western politicians have held firm.
Finally, the sheer quantity of threats Russia has issued has led to a paradox in which the Kremlin is no longer able to succinctly define what its red lines are, and how it would respond. Kyiv has been emboldened, pushing the boundaries further than previously conceivable.
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Against this backdrop, Moscow’s threats to sink any vessel entering Ukraine’s territorial waters for the purpose of exporting its grain seem particularly empty. The Black Sea shipping route is a lifeline. Not just for Ukraine, which relies on its grain exports as a consequential source of revenue. But also for the rest of the world, as choking off Ukraine risks exacerbating global food scarcity and price hikes.
Here, Russia’s threats have been effective enough so far: it has put a stop to most of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain shipments with little response from the West. The world must understand that Russia is unlikely to escalate the war if transport vessels under NATO or EU protection cross the Black Sea.
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Moscow Has Shown It Will Not Cross Its Own Red Lines in the War, August 29, 2023
ContextWhy Biden Must Send Ukraine the ATACMS It Needs — Now'..Ukraine .. what they need now is a firepower boost with M26 cluster rockets'(The Wall Street Journal) - Let Ukraine Direct Its Own Counteroffensive