'If Ukraine falls, we all will fall.'
- Petr Pavel (
Source, October 29, 2023)
*** '..the continuing failure to give Ukraine what it needs when it needs..''..the Ukrainians this week launched another ATACMS attack, and it was equally as devastating. It seems that using just a few ATACMS, the Ukrainians were able to destroy three S-400 Russian anti-air systems. The S-400 is supposedly the best and most modern Russian anti-aircraft system. It was heralded before the full-scale invasion as an extraordinary threat to NATO air dominance. Some were even claiming ATACMS would be shot down by S-400. Not so much—another example of the extreme over-rating of Russian equipment in some quarters.
And guess what? Ukraine was not supplied with enough. It seems around 20 ATACMS were given in the first instance, far too small for any kind of sustained campaign. And guess what then? The Russians, who only seem to adjust once they have been hit, have started pulling all their valuable aviation assets outside of ATACMS range. President Zelensky, in his evening address on Wedndesday said as much.
Yes, its a good thing that these aircraft and helicopters have been withdrawn, but it would have been far, far better if the Ukrainians had been given HIMARS enough to hit more of their bases and destroyed these assets
before they were removed. However the continuing failure to give Ukraine what it needs when it needs (or the continuing success of Putin in scaring the US not to help Ukraine in the way it needs), is one of the great failures of US policy. This cant be sugar-coated. Things are always arriving too late and in too small numbers. The ATACMS delivery is an overall sign of a policy failure wrapped up in some smaller successes.'
- Phillips P. OBrien,
Weekend Update #52: Avdiivka, ATACMS.., October 29, 2023
'..this is now a war of attrition, of the sort western powers have not seen since the world wars of the last century..''..If Kyiv can cope with current Russian pressure in the Donbas, then the immediate strategic prize — not far away now — is to get within easy missile and artillery range of Crimea. This would make it too dangerous for the Russians to use Crimea as a military hub, feeding troops and airpower into the battlefields of Ukraine. It would make it an unenviable home for the 800,000 Russians who have moved in since 2014, and it would be a major setback for Putin to see the pride and joy of his “Novorossiya” under such threat. With only two slender land routes connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine and one vulnerable bridge over the Kerch Strait linking it to Russia, Crimea is inherently vulnerable if the Ukrainians get much closer to it.
..
..this is now a war of attrition, of the sort western powers have not seen since the world wars of the last century. Wars of attrition are ultimately won by the side that can best gear up its industries and apply its productive capacity directly to the battlefield — from high-tech cyber systems down to bullets, boots and “meals ready to eat”.
The Russians can — eventually — do this for themselves. The Ukrainians can do some of this for themselves and are gearing up for a high-production arms industry in the future. But they can only match Russia in any real war of attrition with western support, particularly next year when Russia will be heavily dependent on what it can squeeze from North Korea, Iran and China.'
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Source, October 28, 2023
Context(Prioritize long range precision fires) - Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is More Successful Than You Think'A lack of defense production .. the U.S. Is Unprepared for War''What are Ukraine's borders? .. they’re internationally recognized and defined in 1991.' - Navalny