'..Crimea is actually a supply headache for Russia—it has the Kerch bridge and a few naval ports. With strike, Ukraine could take all of these out—making it impossible for Russia to bring in supply from anywhere but directly through occupied Ukraine in the North..''..Ukraine still does not possess enough long-range strike (ATACMS, Taurus) etc. I wont lecture any more on this but to say that Ukraine clearly has to carefully ration the use of its long-range strike—and it takes long pauses between operations to make sure it has a high percentage chance of hitting high value targets. It does not have the capability to come back week after week and try and make these naval bases non-functional. That is .. a tragedy and a sign why we have aided Ukraine so poorly at times (and lengthened the war).
The
third point is very simple. Russian control of Crimea is extremely vulnerable—were Ukraine armed properly. Crimea is actually a supply headache for Russia—it has the Kerch bridge and a few naval ports. With strike, Ukraine could take all of these out—making it impossible for Russia to bring in supply from anywhere but directly through occupied Ukraine in the North. This would place a major burden on Russian logistics. Russia is desperate to hold Crimea, Ukraine has a remarkable opportunity to damage Russian control there—but we are not aiding Ukraine enough to do this. Its simple and so stupid.'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien,
Weekend Update #54: Preparing for a Russian missile offensive: Good News and Less Good News, November 11, 2023
Context'History teaches that persistence and strategic patience have been the key to victory..'