'Its another sign why the stalemate narrative is particularly pernicious. The difference so far this winter is that while the Russian campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure so far seems less effective (though lets not count our chickens) the Ukrainians are fighting an entirely new campaign against Russian infrastructure. This is not stalemate.
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In this war, Ukraine should stay on the defensive and let the Russians attack for as long as possible. It does seem now that Putin is throwing whatever force he can to try and take places like Avdiivka—and if he wants to attack, Ukraine should not only let him—the Ukrainians should encourage him.
Hopefully Ukraine wont go back on the offensive again until Russia has been seriously weakened (which is possible). Russia will have fewer shells, tanks and advanced artillery systems in 2024 than they had in 2022 and 2023. Let the Russian use up what they have attacking.
If that means we have many months (and that could be well into the second half of 2024) before Ukraine is willing to attack again—so be it.''..[Russia] is not winning the war militarily (I will build my next update around that) and if you look at Russian public opinion, that is actually showing far greater war weariness than Ukrainian public opinion..
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Ukraine launches more attacks on infrastructureI think we can say safely now that Ukraine has put together quite a detailed campaign this autumn winter to attack Russia’s ability to prosecute the war by hitting high value targets in Russia. This was something that first became apparent more than a month ago, and I wrote a little about it 3 weeks ago if youre interested.
However this week these Ukrainian attacks have accelerated with really the most audacious (and potentially most important) attacks so far. The Ukrainian caused not one but two explosions on the rail links which connect Russia to China. They attacked both a major bridge and a major tunnel in quick succession. Indeed the Ukrainians seem so pleased with the results that Ukrainian intelligence quickly leaked their involvement in them to the public.
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Its another sign why the stalemate narrative is particularly pernicious. The difference so far this winter is that while the Russian campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure so far seems less effective (though lets not count our chickens) the Ukrainians are fighting an entirely new campaign against Russian infrastructure. This is not stalemate.
..
In this war, Ukraine should stay on the defensive and let the Russians attack for as long as possible. It does seem now that Putin is throwing whatever force he can to try and take places like Avdiivka—and if he wants to attack, Ukraine should not only let him—the Ukrainians should encourage him.
Hopefully Ukraine wont go back on the offensive again until Russia has been seriously weakened (which is possible). Russia will have fewer shells, tanks and advanced artillery systems in 2024 than they had in 2022 and 2023. Let the Russian use up what they have attacking.
If that means we have many months (and that could be well into the second half of 2024) before Ukraine is willing to attack again—so be it.'
Context'..destroy [Russian] equipment before it reache(s) the battlefield..'(..send Ukraine as many ATACMS as it [needs]..) - Ukraine insists it sees no sign of NATO war fatigue..'Ukraine can win this war if armed properly..' - Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien(Prioritize long range precision fires) - Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is More Successful Than You Think