'So the US pulling out could actually lead to as escalation. It would take Ukraine’s European supporters to basically open the taps and give Ukraine everything they could—but dont assume it would mean Ukrainian defeat. It could even lead to the broadening of the war, as Ukraine would have no reason to hold back and allow Russia the massive advantage its had so far of leaving its border undefended. We have so far aided Ukraine in a way that helped Russia in a number of ways—that would be over.''..some European states seem to understand that the US might indeed stop the aid it is giving now .. If the US does cut off aid now, as I talked about last week, Europe would have to drop all niceties and find a way to keep Ukraine in the fight for the year, while making plans to improve the situation in 2025.
Those who say that Ukraine would automatically lose, dont know what they are talking about. This war has shown that moving forward is still very very difficult to do for both sides. The Russians have lost vehicles in large numbers and Europe, even though it has spent far less than the USA over the last few decades, has a great deal that it could give. Certainly in the area of fighting, Ukraine would be hard pressed, would have to go on a hard defensive, minimize casualties and try to exact a high toll on the Russians when the latter moved forward. With far more limited 155 ammunition, the ability to slow Russian advances and attrit Russian forces would fall more heavily back to the hand-helds or UAVs. Europe could and has provided significant aid in this area.
And the Russian army remains what it is—a deeply flawed organization that takes massive casualties for minimal gains. Indeed, almost the entire Russian military that crossed the border on February 24, 2022 has been wiped out, according to US intelligence.''This was a weekend when in a number of small (and one large) way European states and the EU started to accept and adjust to the reality that the US cannot be trusted to maintain its position as the single largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine. Europe still has a long way to go before it is anywhere close to where it needs to be, but there were a number of promising signs that (finally) they might sooner than expected have to try and fill the void left by a dithering USA. Of course, even if this realization is happening, any major change wont happen in time to affect the battlefield for a while, which means if the US does stop aid to Ukraine now (still very much an open question) then some drastic steps would have to be taken to keep Ukraine supported in 2024.
Europe has already given more than the USA.The relative growth of European military aid for Ukraine vis a vis the USA has been something that has been happening for a while. Here is the graph of the situation by the end of October 2023, and at this point US aid ($43.9 billion) to Ukraine was actually less than $44 billion given by the eight largest European contributors (Germany, Britain, Norway, Denmark, Poland, Netherlands, Sweden and the EU institutionally).
There is still alot of disparity amongst European contributors (France not being in the top seven for Europe is rather shocking) but overall it was an indication that Europe collectively had already given more than many understood.
When it came to combined economic and military aid to Ukraine, btw, the Europeans had been far more generous than the USA. The EU institutionally has alone given/pledged more than the USA, which means that overall European support for Ukraine is more than double that of the USA.
So, the argument that Europeans have not been doing their share is wrong—certain states have made massive commitments to Ukraine (the Baltics, Nordics, Poland and the Netherlands stand out). Btw, British people who boast of British aid need to understand that the British contribution to Ukraine is far less relatively, because EU states contribute directly and through the EU while the UK only contributes directly. Its not to downgrade UK support—but the UK could/should do far more.
The last weekNow, some European states seem to understand that the US might indeed stop the aid it is giving now. Just yesterday the House adjourned for the holidays, leaving aid for Ukraine in 2024 very much in limbo. There is still a significant chance that a bill will be approved (the deal is there—more money for border security and in exchange the Ukrainian aid is ok’d), but with this House of Representatives—I would never say anything is definite.
Even if aid is eventually approved, however, the US has shown itself to be far more unreliable that many Europeans had assumed. There had been a realization for a few months, that the election of Trump in November 2024 could lead to a cut-off of US support for Ukraine (probably would), however I dont think anyone expected it before the end of 2023. That possibility is what Europe is faced with now.
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Assuming the 50 billion gets there, in just the last week European states have promised Ukraine more financial support than US has given in military aid since February 24, 2022. Its a hopeful sign—but it of course is no replacement for US military aid. If the US does cut aid now, Europe will be left having to scramble mightily to keep Ukraine supplied to fight, even with much reduced capabilities, in 2024.
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If the US does cut off aid now, as I talked about last week, Europe would have to drop all niceties and find a way to keep Ukraine in the fight for the year, while making plans to improve the situation in 2025.
Those who say that Ukraine would automatically lose, dont know what they are talking about. This war has shown that moving forward is still very very difficult to do for both sides. The Russians have lost vehicles in large numbers and Europe, even though it has spent far less than the USA over the last few decades, has a great deal that it could give. Certainly in the area of fighting, Ukraine would be hard pressed, would have to go on a hard defensive, minimize casualties and try to exact a high toll on the Russians when the latter moved forward. With far more limited 155 ammunition, the ability to slow Russian advances and attrit Russian forces would fall more heavily back to the hand-helds or UAVs. Europe could and has provided significant aid in this area.
And the Russian army remains what it is—a deeply flawed organization that takes massive casualties for minimal gains. Indeed, almost the entire Russian military that crossed the border on February 24, 2022 has been wiped out, according to US intelligence.
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If the US goes home and leaves Europe to its own resources, the Ukrainians could
escalate in certain ways. The entire border between Ukraine and Russia proper and Belarus, is actually very lightly defended as the Russians have been given the great benefit of being able to concentrate almost all their army in Ukraine itself. Ukraine would be free now to try and cross that border in strength (remember how weak Russian internal defenses were when Wagner marched on Moscow)? And the relatively undefended border between Ukraine and Belarus/Russia is considerably longer than the line now being fought over in Ukraine now. Its stretches for over 1000 kilometres..
So the US pulling out could actually lead to as escalation. It would take Ukraine’s European supporters to basically open the taps and give Ukraine everything they could—but dont assume it would mean Ukrainian defeat. It could even lead to the broadening of the war, as Ukraine would have no reason to hold back and allow Russia the massive advantage its had so far of leaving its border undefended. We have so far aided Ukraine in a way that helped Russia in a number of ways—that would be over.'
- Phillips Payson O’Brien,
Weekend Update #59 Europe Stepping Up, December 16, 2023
Context '..European militaries to start thinking about how they, alone, could defend Europe against Russian aggression..'(Spanish, English, Chinese) - The Values: 'You only have to read one book, "The History of Spain" by Father Juan de Mariana.' - Thomas JeffersonThe Survival of the Republic - 'Cato’s Letters .. its rousing lessons on liberty, power, tyranny, and republican government.'(US headed for the Second Civil War, a failed state) - '..Trump’s recent comments [like] .. fascist dictators of the 1930s.'What Happens When the U.S. Overestimates Its Power'..[Russia] is not winning the war militarily..'(Putin's War) - 'What are Ukraine's borders? .. they’re internationally recognized and defined in 1991.' - Navalny