'..One of the reasons that the Russian campaign this winter against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has been less effective than last year’s, has been the Patriots. I will write more on this later, but so far there have not been the major power cuts of last winter. And as long as Ukraine continues getting anti-air ammo, there should not be.
..Ukraine, once again, has shown what it can do when armed properly—and at the same time it reveals the shortfalls in what Ukraine has received. All the same [kinds] of arguments about the Patriots have been used repeatedly about other systems both before Feb 24, 2022 and after. Maybe now, the administration will see what Ukraine can do when properly armed.''..the Ukrainian military is more adaptive and effective than the Russian military.
Futhermore it showed again that when given advanced systems, Ukraine uses them to great effect against the Russians. Its a lesson that has been demonstrated time and again, which is both heartening for those of us who support Ukraine, but terribly depressing too—as it points out the limitations of the support with which Ukraine has been provided.
Indeed this one engagement, which involved Ukrainians (almost certainly) firing Patriot anti-aircraft missiles against Russian SU-34 fighter-bombers, some of the best Russian aircraft, summarizes so much of how aid for Ukraine has been given (or often not given) and how pre-war assumptions of Russian strength and escalation threats remain just as strong as they were.
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"..every Russian murderer will get our response, and none of them will escape justice." (Zelensky)
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Once again, Ukraine has shown what it could accomplish with advanced weaponry—it regularly out-thinks, out-plans and out-executes the Russians. Indeed this operation should be doubly effective. The SU-34s had been used recently by the Russians to launch glide bombs against Ukrainian troops.3 These glide bombs have caused the Ukrainians real trouble for a while, as they are stealthy and accurate. That the SU-34s were so relatively close to Ukrainian lines might mean that they were launching glide bombs. If the Russians now pull back on this—it would be another real benefit for Ukraine, above and beyond the destruction of the planes themselves.
The tragedy is that even with this evidence, its been such a long and uneven road to get here. In many ways the story of the Patriots and the SU-34s is a story of the war in a nutshell.
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..Its just that so many analysts were arguing not to arm Ukraine (so wrongly as it turned out) that they tried to create a narrative where there arguments were right.
The article was also full of well-known analysts oohing and aahing over Russian military power which was supposed to be able to crush Ukraine—go ahead and read it if you want.
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Lo and behold, in December 2022, all the BS arguments against Ukraine getting Patriots were put aside, and the US government confirmed that it had agreed to transfer a Patriot system to Ukraine..
People seemed to forget that under the pressure of war, peacetime operations can be sped up a great deal. Anyway, in reality it took about 4 months for the Ukrainians to be trained, the Patriots to be delivered and the systems to be put into operation. The Ukrainian defense ministry confirmed in April 2023 that the first Patriot system was in Ukraine. By May the Ukrainians were so competent in their usage, that they pulled off the first surprise massacre of Russian aircraft.
Since then the Patriots have proven their great worth in protecting Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine (it seems that there is always one Patriot somewhere near Kyiv and the other is more mobile). One of the reasons that the Russian campaign this winter against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has been less effective than last year’s, has been the Patriots. I will write more on this later, but so far there have not been the major power cuts of last winter. And as long as Ukraine continues getting anti-air ammo, there should not be.
And then there was this week, when the Ukrainians once again showed what they could do. Do you see what I mean about this being heartening and depressing at the same time? Ukraine, once again, has shown what it can do when armed properly—and at the same time it reveals the shortfalls in what Ukraine has received. All the same [kinds] of arguments about the Patriots have been used repeatedly about other systems both before Feb 24, 2022 and after. Maybe now, the administration will see what Ukraine can do when properly armed.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone.'
- Phillips Payson O’Brien,
Weekend Update #60 Ukraine shows what it can do when armed properly, December 23, 2023
Context ..'What are Ukraine's borders? .. they’re internationally recognized and defined in 1991.' - Navalny(Europe Stepping Up) - '..European militaries .. defend Europe against Russia .. drop all niceties..''..[Russia] is not winning the war militarily..'(December 14, 2023) - Australia expands training support to Ukrainian forcesICC .. arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova