'..the analysis for Russia and Ukraine was not only off, it represented the greatest strategic failure in analysis in modern history.''..all analysts do make mistakes. Certainly I am no exception. However in this case the mistakes were so grave and had such significant policy implications that they require particular study. This was not a case of just a normal error. As part of the report, I went back and looked at strategic analysis throughout the 20th century, to see what happened before. Earlier analysis was actually far more measured and even-handed—and usually (but not always) avoided the kinds of lopsided analyses we saw in 2021-2022.
So the analysis for Russia and Ukraine was not only off, it represented the greatest strategic failure in analysis in modern history. If you don’t believe me—try and find a worse case.'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien (
Source, September 29, 2024)
'[US Intel Community] .. have been consistently wrong since Putin took power.''European leaders are saying something different, and acting differently. Which means their intelligence analysts are handing them different analysis. We seem predisposed towards excessive fear of what Putin says and have been consistently wrong since Putin took power.
"US officials are telling NYT that the Intel Community believes Russia will escalate kinetically against NATO if Ukraine is allowed to conduct deep strikes.
The same people who thought that Kyiv would fall in 3 days now think that Putin wants a war with NATO when he can't beat Ukraine." (Colby Badhwar, September 27, 2024)'
- Ben Hodges (
Source, September 27, 2024)
Context(Ukraine defeats Russia) - '..how modern wars are won .. the destruction of equipment before it reaches the battlefield.'