'..to understand how modern wars are won and lost, people need to look at the destruction of equipment before it reaches the battlefield—because such destruction is doubly valuable. Not only does is deny the enemy the use of the equipment/ammunition, it destroys it before it can ever be used. Destroying equipment on the battlefield means it could have been used before. Destroying it in the depots means it never had any effect.
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..The fact that Ukraine can now attack vital military facilities deep inside Russia, and devastate them, should help end the escalation debate for now.''For those of use who have been screaming for the last few years that Ukraine needed greater ranged weaponry and the ability to hit militarily useful targets far behind the lines—this is a moment that has come far too late..''On the evening of 18-19 September, the Ukrainians launched a mass attack against the large Russian armaments depot located at Toropets—a long way from Ukraine, but not far from the Baltic states .. This facility is one of the largest ammunition storage sites in all of Russia .. And that was not all. Last night there were also credible reports that the Ukrainians were making a follow up attack in the Toropets area.
These additional/follow on attacks are extremely important. It shows that Ukraine is producing enough systems to keep hitting important targets and really damage then. Often one attack is not enough in ranged war. The first pictures might be dramatic, but when the smoke clears the target often can be repaired (this was often the case with bombing in World War II). To really put a target out of action, you want the capacity to return to it a few times if needs be.
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As I write about extensively in How the War was Won, to understand how modern wars are won and lost, people need to look at the destruction of equipment before it reaches the battlefield—because such destruction is doubly valuable. Not only does is deny the enemy the use of the equipment/ammunition, it destroys it before it can ever be used. Destroying equipment on the battlefield means it could have been used before. Destroying it in the depots means it never had any effect.
So Ukraine has destroyed a massive amount of equipment with small cost and no losses in humans. Sit back and think about that.
The Vindication of the Ukrainian Claim of Ranged WarFor those of use who have been
screaming for the last few years that Ukraine needed greater ranged weaponry and the ability to hit militarily useful targets far behind the lines—this is a moment that has come far too late. There have been two rather ludicrous arguments given against this call.
The first was that ranged attacks would not make that much difference, as Ukraine needed to win the war on the battlefield. The second was that such attacks would result in Russian dramatic escalation, even nuclear weapons use.
Both arguments were weak. The first was, to put it bluntly, nonsensical. Ranged fire has been one of the most important abilities of successful militaries in war at all times—particularly modern war. If you can hit your enemy deep in the rear, it has a corrosive impact on the front lines. War requires masses of material to be fought—and the troops in the front lines of this war are running through equipment at frightening clips. If you can destroy that equipment or keep it from being moved to the front line—it will have a cascading impact.
Its why the US military has decided that ranged fires are the
King of Battle.
The truth was that they almost certainly new how effective Ukraine would be with ranged capacity—but they didn’t want Ukraine to have the ability for the second reason. They were overly afraid of the Russian reaction because they had bought into a
flawed escalation model.
Russia cant afford to escalate to nuclear weapons usage for a number of reasons. The fact that Ukraine can now attack vital military facilities deep inside Russia, and devastate them, should help end the escalation debate for now (though sadly it wont). Ukraine needs to be able to fight a normal war—to attack the military facilities of the country attacking it, whether on the front line or in the rear.
Its why ranged
war capabilities have become more and more part of Ukraine’s asks from the USA. The Ukrainians understand that if they are going to win, and not just survive, they need the ability to hit Russia at range. Zelensky is going to speak about this alot in the next few days, I wager.
So these attacks by the Ukrainians destroyed not just Russian depots and ammunition, they have destroyed most of the intellectual arguments used against giving them more ranged capability.
Overall, these attacks are some of the most important of the war.
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The Russians are a few hundred yards closer to Pokrovsk. Yet, you wont hear the press saying that they went overboard a month ago. The truth is, the Russians don’t seem to have the troops to launch a major assault on the town. They have had to send forces to Kursk (which we were told they would not do) and they are trying to press other parts of the lines which are easier for them to attack. It does highlight one of the weirdnesses of the reporting. Marginal Russian gains are highlighted as great successes, but when things don’t go so well, the press is quiet.'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien,
Weekend Update #99, Certain Debates Should be Over, September 21, 2024
Context (Ukraine defeats Russia) - '..give it the aid that it needs to fight and win the war .. Ukraine can win the war.'NATO military committee chair backs Ukraine’s use of long range weapons to hit Russia, September 14, 2024
'..destroy [Russian] equipment before it reache(s) the battlefield..'ICC .. arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova(Ukraine defeats Russia) - Former USAF European Commanders: Let Ukraine Take the Fight to Russia(Russia, a fascist imperialist regime, must lose) - 'It is normal for Russia to lose wars.''We should not be scared of Russia's collapse .. Prepare for it..''..the vast majority of Ukrainians see no room for compromise between Russian genocide and their own survival.''..Soviet-era concept .. in Russian policy during this war .. is known as reflexive control.''Putin will therefore fight on until his military is physically defeated, treating any cease-fire simply as a chance to rearm for a more decisive attack..'(Ukraine defeats Russia) - 'NATO is discussing the possibility of taking control of the skies over Western Ukraine..' 'What are Ukraine's borders? .. they’re internationally recognized and defined in 1991.' - Navalny