'..if Ukraine were helped and kept in the fight with the strong support of its partners, Russia would have real troubles in less than a year .. So, once again, Ukraine can win this war, but not on its own. Russia remains a weak economic power that cannot expand production significantly. The choice we face, which will become increasingly a European one I fear, is whether we do want Ukraine to win?'''Negotiating for another country must be easy. Leaders seem to love to do it, even when they are mostly incompetent in running their own. Right now, for instance, there seems to be lots of negotiating for Ukraine, without talking to Ukraine. Its a fascinating and troubling phenomenon, once again, as before Feb 24, 2022, assuming that Ukraine is an object that can be told what its future will be.
The most egregious example of this was the call by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Vladimir Putin. This story exploded Friday. It seemed that Scholz requested the call (that is what the Russians say and the Germans have not denied it) and that would make sense in a desperate sense. Scholz is in a terrible political position. He is facing an election in February/March 2025 and his party looks set to be roundly defeated. For those who dont know, Scholz’s coalition government has fallen apart, and as he cant command a majority in the Bundestag, there will have to be a new vote. The assumption, by the way, is that the much more pro-Ukraine (at least verbally) Frederich Merz, head of the CDU, will almost certainly be the chancellor of the next German government. So that at least is a small grain of comfort.
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The Ukrainians had every right to be suspicious. Scholz has been the European leader most responsible for the limits on the weapons being given to Ukraine. He has stated publicly that he does not want Ukraine to strike targets in Russia, and, while being generous, has overwhelmingly given either defensive systems (anti-air) or shorter range offensive ones. Also, the talk between Scholz and Putin was no perfunctory affair, it reportedly lasted at least an hour. That’s a long time for a call that German sources said only covered a few points.
Now the Scholz move was so cackhanded that it should not make a major difference. The reaction in Germany was hardly supportive, and Scholz’s time in office is probably short. However that is not the point, to see one of Ukraine’s partners, clearly against Ukraine’s wishes, call the man leading a brutal war of aggression against Ukraine (that very day there were some terrible attacks on civilian targets), is an all downside move (except maybe for Scholz’s standing in the SDP—which has a wing that remains distressingly pro-Russian). It shows how little what Ukraine wants really matters, and establishes a larger precedent that “bigger” states might reach out to Putin and try and impose a deal on Ukraine.
Its even more worrying, as the signs are that this is something that the incoming Trump administration has very much on its agenda. Some of the new nominees, and others around Trump, seem to regularly float different ideas of what a peace plan might look like for Ukraine, without of course paying the slightest interest to what Ukraine wants.
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..if Ukraine were helped and kept in the fight with the strong support of its partners, Russia would have real troubles in less than a year. The issue is that Ukraine might not be helped by its partners—and this could lead to higher Ukrainian casualties that will really hit Ukraine’s weakness..
So, once again, Ukraine can win this war, but not on its own. Russia remains a weak economic power that cannot expand production significantly. The choice we face, which will become increasingly a European one I fear, is whether we do want Ukraine to win?'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien,
Weekend Update #107: Some Leaders Wants to Tell Ukraine What Peace Means for Ukraine, November 17, 2024
'Russian troops to withdraw from Ukraine, for Putin to be tried as a war criminal and for the release of political prisoners.''Ilya Yashin, a Moscow opposition deputy and ally of late politician Alexei Navalny, was one of 16 prisoners freed by Russia in a historic exchange with the West on Aug. 1. He had been serving an 8.5-year sentence for denouncing the invasion of Ukraine.
On Nov. 17, Yashin, Yulia Navalnaya and Vladimir Kara-Murza will lead a protest in Berlin calling for Russian troops to withdraw from Ukraine, for Putin to be tried as a war criminal and for the release of political prisoners.
The Moscow Times spoke to Yashin about working in exile, the election of Donald Trump, Russia's future after Putin and how he reaches Russians inside Russia with his message.
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"..I live in Germany now, for example. Eighty years ago, it was the capital of the Third Reich, where people were tortured, exterminated in gas chambers, killed, shot ... And now it's one of the freest cities in the world, where you can do what you want and be who you want to be.." - Ilya Yashin'
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‘It Is Impossible to Change Russia From the Outside’: Russian Opposition Politician Ilya Yashin, November 13, 2024
Context 'What are Ukraine's borders? .. they’re internationally recognized and defined in 1991.' - Navalny'..Soviet-era concept .. in Russian policy during this war .. is known as reflexive control.''..Ukraine .. hoping that Europe steps up to the plate.''The Biden policy on Ukraine has been a global disaster.''1. Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders (in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act).'
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Budapest Memorandum