'..it looks like the next credit and liquidity crisis could occur during the second half of 2018..'

'Jeffrey Peshut at RealForecasts.com has composed several very illuminating graphs based on the Rothbard-Salerno True Money Supply (TMS). In one graph Peshut shows the collapse of the growth rate of TMS beginning at the end of 2016, which was caused by the Fed beginning to raise the fed funds target rate at the end of the preceding year. What is of great interest is that the recent deceleration of monetary growth (the second red arrow) almost exactly matches in extent and rapidity the monetary deceleration (the first red arrow) that immediately preceded the financial crisis of 2007-2008.'

- Joseph T. Salerno, The True Money Supply Is Flashing Red, February 26, 2018



'..it looks like the next credit and liquidity crisis could occur during the second half of 2018..'

'RealForecasts.com expects that the growth of TMS will continue its downward trend in the months ahead, as the Federal Open Market Committee continues to raise the Fed Funds Target Rate and reduce its balance sheet. Based upon the current trajectory of this trend, and the Fed’s current policy stance, it looks like the next credit and liquidity crisis could occur during the second half of 2018, with an economic recession and real estate market downturn to follow. Of course, this forecast could change if the Fed changes its policy stance or if the commercial banks change their pace of lending activity.

In the meantime, real estate investors would be wise to take advantage of the still robust capital markets environment to begin selling some of their under-performing and less-strategic assets and using the proceeds to reduce the leverage on their remaining properties and portfolios. By “dealing from the bottom of the deck” and reducing leverage, they will be improving the risk profile of their portfolios in anticipation of — and not in reaction to — the next credit and liquidity crisis, economic recession and real estate market downturn.'

- Jeffrey J. Peshut, What Does The Dramatic Deceleration In The Growth Of The True Money Supply Mean For Real Estate Investors? February 21, 2018



'Bottom line: there is no sign of recession in the next six to nine months.

It is important to note that there is no perfect indicator. But I do believe that understanding where we are in the business cycle in a rules-based disciplined way can help us better understand periods of higher and lower risk. Should we play more offense than defense or more defense than offense? Getting in front of the challenges that recessions bring is important to our wealth.'

- Steve Blumenthal, On My Radar: My Favorite Recession Watch Indicators, February 2, 2018



Context

'..Central bankers reflated a deeply unsound financial structure..' - Doug Noland

What Free-Banking Advocates Get Wrong, February 26, 2018

(Banking Reform - English/Dutch) '..a truly stable financial and monetary system for the twenty-first century..'