'Secret UK briefing- “epidemic last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million hospitalised, a secret briefing for senior NHS officials. health chiefs are braced for up to 80% of Britons becoming infected with coronavirus over that time.” #COVID19'
- Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding,
Source, March 15, 2020
'Why should we all care & deeply worry about New South Wales, Australië ‘s 171 #COVID19 cases? Because it is the MIDDLE OF SUMMER THERE!!! This virus will not be die out when summer comes to Northern Hemisphere. Forget that fantasy. We are stuck with it until vaccine arrives!'
- Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding,
Source, March 16, 2020
'“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.
“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.''The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.
The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.
It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.
..
“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.
“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.
The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would kill it.
..
That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.
After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer months especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in small rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.
There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter months, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able to protect people from the disease.'
- The Guardian,
UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised', March 15, 2020
Context(Global Lockdown 2020 (- 2021?))(Covid 19) - 'We need to brace for longer lockdown' - Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding'..the US intelligence community, public health experts and officials .. had warned for years that the country was at risk from a pandemic..'