'Russia built much of its geopolitical resurgence on opposition to the West’s flawed wars in the Middle East..' - '..disastrous decisions of the Bush administration to invade..'

'Reputational damage is imminent. Assaulting other states goes hand in hand with the bombing of cities, the killing of innocents, the displacement of the local populace and breaking of international norms. The US until now carried around the stigma of its flawed Middle Eastern policies. This helped illiberal leaders to attract more opponents of the US-led international order.'

'Russia built much of its geopolitical resurgence on opposition to the West’s flawed wars in the Middle East. Despite this, Moscow made the same mistake by assuming that it could simply defeat a substantially weaker opponent and secure its broader interests. Russia is now faced with problems that it often portrayed as fundamental issues of the US-led liberal order. Drawing on the West’s experiences in the Middle East, the Kremlin is now faced with a “Realism 101” lesson. This consists of the following issues:

- Reputational damage is imminent. Assaulting other states goes hand in hand with the bombing of cities, the killing of innocents, the displacement of the local populace and breaking of international norms. The US until now carried around the stigma of its flawed Middle Eastern policies. This helped illiberal leaders to attract more opponents of the US-led international order.

- Backlash from the local population is inevitable and partisan wars are almost impossible to win .. grievances against Russia will run deep among the local population for decades to come. This will make it almost impossible to bring Russia’s neighbour back into its orbit. The severity of this issue, however, will depend on the scale of Russian aims in Ukraine.

- Domestic backlash will grow as the war upsets the population with increasing costs and losses in the conflict. Currently no polls are available, as we cannot track the imminent impact of western sanctions on the Russian public. Yet it is likely to create more discontent among Russia’s current ruling elite in the same way that “Iraq syndrome” stigmatised US politics until today.

- Despite the lack of an external counterbalance to the US-led coalition in the Middle East, the Afghan war alone cost the US more than two trillion US dollars. The western containment of Russia, however, is offering a chance to bleed the Russian economy dry via crippling sanctions on top of the whole operation’s costs.'

- A “Realism 101” lesson on Russia’s zero-sum logic, May 9, 2022


'..the reckless, costly and disastrous decisions of the Bush administration to invade both Afghanistan and Iraq followed by the decision to occupy them and attempt to create “democracies” that would support our interests .. What is needed now is a clearheaded examination of the damage done by both wars and a recalibration of our regional posture that realistically matches our needs with our capacities so that we can best protect our interests and those of our allies.'

'Since the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan, I have received questions from a number of journalists, both American and Arab. They have asked what the US withdrawal means for the region, for American leadership in the world and which countries will now fill the void left by the absence of the US from the scene. I have no doubt that these questions have been prompted, in no small measure, by the messiness of the withdrawal, the nightmarish and chaotic scenes at the airport, the tragic human stories of those left behind and the speed with which the American-friendly government collapsed followed by the Taliban’s takeover of the country. 

That said, in each instance I have cautioned those who asked these questions to take note of the fact that America’s problems in the greater Middle East did not begin with the withdrawal. Our decline began twenty years earlier with the reckless, costly and disastrous decisions of the Bush administration to invade both Afghanistan and Iraq followed by the decision to occupy them and attempt to create “democracies” that would support our interests.

These wars were reckless because in both instances the Bush administration was advised by experts in the intelligence community and career-level State Department and military officials that these were not wars we could win or governments we could fashion to our liking. In both cases, Bush, ignored those who knew Afghanistan and Iraq and listened instead to influential neoconservatives who had become the dominant force in his cabinet. Because these ideologues did not know the culture, makeup, or histories of either country, they allowed ideology to trump reality. As a result, these efforts were, from the outset, doomed to failure.

Both wars were also costly in lives and treasure for the United States, Afghanistan and Iraq. The Iraqi and Afghani losses were incalculable and devastating. In the US case, we lost more than 6,000 troops, with tens of thousands more left physically and/or mentally maimed for life. It’s also important to note that in each year since the end of active combat in both Afghanistan and Iraq, we’ve lost more than 6,000 more US veterans to suicide, an average of 20+ per day! In addition, there are tens of thousands more who’ve joined the ranks of the homeless and those addicted to drugs, all the result of war-induced trauma. The morale of the military has been affected. These two wars and the treatment of veterans, those maimed, affected by PTSD, and addicted, has so far cost us more than 3 trillion dollars.

And these wars were disastrous because they accomplished none of their goals. Extremism was not defeated. Instead, it has metastasised into more lethal forms and spread to many more countries threatening the security and stability of countries across the greater Middle East and North Africa and even taking root in some European countries as well. Another disastrous byproduct of these wars is the fact that Iran has now been unleashed on the region and become emboldened to meddle into the affairs of others. The prestige of the US has been weakened. And while the goal of the neoconservatives was to decisively win these wars, demonstrating American power and resolve, thereby ensuring a century of US hegemony in a unipolar world, instead we now see the emergence of a multipolar world with regional and other global powers playing out their strategic ambitions in country after country across the Middle East.

So, whether we stayed in Afghanistan or not, a new reality has already taken hold across the Middle East. Other powers are already either replacing us or competing with us for influence, and some key regional allies, wearied by our blunders and miscalculations, are pursuing their own interests independent of ours. As a result, our leverage is more limited than it was. That said, the US cannot be written off as a “has been” power. We still have influence in the Middle East, economic, military and cultural. We remain the world’s most successful economy, we still have significant deterrent capabilities that can defend allies, and our too often underestimated “soft power” remains our most important asset.

As disastrous as the US departure may have been, we had no option but to limit our loses and leave Afghanistan and end our active combat role in Iraq. But making these decisions in no ways means we are abandoning the region. It simply means that we recognised the realities neoconservatives tragically ignored. What is needed now is a clearheaded examination of the damage done by both wars and a recalibration of our regional posture that realistically matches our needs with our capacities so that we can best protect our interests and those of our allies.'

- James J. Zogby, The roots of America's Middle East decline, January 3, 2022



Context Veterans groups .. in favor of winding down American military involvement in the Middle East

(To learn to train for peace - Train for Peace) - '..the United States has no compelling military need to keep a permanent troop presence in the Middle East.'

'..a permanent departure of U.S. military forces from the Middle East.'

UN's Top Court Orders Russia To Halt Invasion Of Ukraine


(Complete withdrawal from Ukraine (Crimea and the Donbas)) - UN votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calls for withdrawal

Ukraine war: Russia must withdraw to pre-invasion position for a deal - Zelensky - What it will take for the Ukrainians to win

(Cult of the dead) - The problem: [the] imperial structure of Russia and .. its imperialist mindset


Anti-War Broadside Highlights Nationalist Critique of Putin

'..the West should not relinquish its principled refusal to accept Russian annexation of Crimea..'

(The Strategy of Denial) - '..the Cold War is an example of the United States successfully executing a multi-decade competition against a global authoritarian rival .. decoupling is inevitable..'


Watchdog describes litany of US failures in Afghanistan mission

'..Washington is “too reliant” on military force.' - '..the US military’s inability to engage in nation-building..'

'America must lead, but mainly by example .. Most importantly, invest the savings to build a secure, dynamic, and prosperous America that others want to emulate.'


'..Marine Bangs Drum for Investing in Nonlethal Weapons'