'The gauge measures services inflation excluding food, energy and housing and has been roaring higher lately, up 4.8% year over year in March and more than 8% at a 3-month annualized pace.'
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The ‘supercore’ inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands, April 10, 2024
'..Another critical characteristic of the earlier inflation era was frequent temporary reversals in inflation, only to be followed by new peaks..'
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(Global Stagflation)(Inflation out of control) - Inflationary Psychology Has Set In. Dislodging It Won’t Be Easy.'..asset inflation and price inflation. [Volcker] called them “cousins,” and acknowledged that they had been created by the Fed.'
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[Thomas Hoenig] has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed - '..Household Expense Data .. for 80 Years''When wage and price increases become tightly intertwined, the damaging ratchet can be hard to eliminate.'
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'Bundesbank lessons .. the 1970s .. inflation.''..even Volcker got it wrong in his early days as Fed chair. Less than a year into his eight-year tenure, the fed funds rate stood north of 20% as CPI peaked at 15%. The Volcker Fed quickly lowered the policy rate to 9% over a few months — only to throttle it to 20% in 1980.''A hotter-than-expected inflation print rocked bond markets .. Delving inside the inflation numbers, many components are clearly accelerating to the upside, including the Fed-touted "supercore" services number that excludes shelter-related prices .. After price inflation spiked to 12% in 1974, the Arthur Burns-led Fed was quick to keep the policy rate relatively low, even as inflation rose again.
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..even Volcker got it wrong in his early days as Fed chair. Less than a year into his eight-year tenure, the fed funds rate stood north of 20% as CPI peaked at 15%. The Volcker Fed quickly lowered the policy rate to 9% over a few months — only to throttle it to 20% in 1980.
From there, the Fed dropped it to 16%, but the central bank was again forced to raise its benchmark to 20% — the third time in just over a year.'
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..relearning the painful inflation lessons of the 1970s, April 11, 2024
'..inflation getting entrenched.'
- 'Once again, the Federal Reserve has underestimated inflation..' (Summers)Context (Stagflation) - '..[like] the 1970′s doggedly high inflation.'(Global Stagflation) - '..price growth that is continuing to outstrip expectations..'The war against inflation is a long way away from being won'..- inflationism - on a global basis, the likes of which the world had never experienced..'(Global Stagflation) - '..societal collapse .. central banks have been “dishonest” in deflecting blame for the price surge from their prolonged use of ultra-loose monetary policy...'(The Taylor rule) - '..Bullard .. Using standards set by Stanford economics professor John Taylor..'Perils of Unsound Money - 'Once inflation dynamics become firmly embedded, a return to stability becomes extremely difficult..'(Global Stagflation)(Inflationary damage) - '..acc to Taylor Rule .. ECB rates should be 7.2 ppts higher for the entire Eurozone..'(Global Stagflation)(2023) - 'The United States is, today, an underlying 4.5-5% inflation country..'(Sticky inflation)(Severe impact of inflation) - '..strong .. inflation that is not coming down..'(Banking Reform - English/Dutch) '..a truly stable financial and monetary system for the twenty-first century..'