"It does look like the sun has been more active in the last 50 years than it has been for a long time. One estimate is that there has not been this long a time period of high activity in something like 8,000 years."- Dr. David Hathaway, NASA (remark made in 2005)
[
spaceweather.com]
"Historical Solar Activity: Can we count on the sun? Two hundred thousand year old Greenland ice cores show that the Earth's temperature varied between 3 and 5 degrees C in 20 years time. No doubt, those bad old Neanderthals were using too many CFC'S? Not likely. In recorded history, the 'Little Ice Age' was centered on solar activity when sunspots declined and the sun was quiet for about 70 years. Sunspots declined in 1615 and reached an all time low in 1670."-- Astronaut John Young (who was part of the Apollo 16 mission to the moon in April 1972.) in his essay:
The BIG PictureI'm much more inclined to link the changes in the solar environment with the rapid changes of our earth climate (and that of other planets like
mars) in the present and the past, than the increase of CO2 (in complex systems a small change can have drastic consequences in the long run. CO2 fits in to this. It is not the cause of climate change but changes the system in unexpected ways).
The rapid thawing of Siberia is a sign that we will experience rapid, or even abrupt, climate change. Something that our current human civilization is ill equiped to handle. We need to
upgrade our industrial and
organizational structures to be able to absorb and adapt [1] to this kind of change:
Major Climate Change Occurred 5,200 Years Ago: Evidence Suggests That History Could Repeat ItselfJ.
P.S.
Sun's Output Increasing in Possible Trend Fueling Global Warming[1] See also
Overview Project C (pdf), version 4.26, page 10, third paragraph.
***
Siberia's rapid thaw causes alarmBBC News
11 August 2005
SourceThe world's largest frozen peat bog is melting, which could speed the rate of global warming, New Scientist reports.The huge expanse of western Siberia is thawing for the first time since its formation, 11,000 years ago.
The area, which is the size of France and Germany combined, could release billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
This could potentially act as a tipping point, causing global warming to snowball, scientists fear.
The situation is an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming," researcher Sergei Kirpotin, of Tomsk State University, Russia, told New Scientist magazine.
The whole western Siberian sub-Arctic region has started to thaw, he added, and this "has all happened in the last three or four years".
Warming fast
Western Siberia has warmed faster than almost anywhere on the planet, with average temperatures increasing by about 3C in the last 40 years.
The warming is believed to be due to a combination of man-made climate change, a cyclical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Arctic oscillation and feedbacks caused by melting ice.
The 11,000-year-old bogs contain billions of tonnes of methane, most of which has been trapped in permafrost and deeper ice-like structures called clathrates.
But if the bogs melt, there is a big risk their hefty methane load could be dumped into the atmosphere, accelerating global warming.
Scientists have reacted with alarm at the finding, warning that future global temperature predictions may have to be revised.
"When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable," David Viner, of the University of East Anglia, UK, told the Guardian newspaper. "There are no brakes you can apply.
"This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing."
The intergovernmental panel on climate change speculated in 2001 that global temperatures would rise between 1.4C and 5.8C between 1990 and 2100.
However these estimates only considered global warming sparked by known greenhouse gas emissions.
"These positive feedbacks with landmasses weren't known about then," Dr Viner said. "They had no idea how much they would add to global warming."