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'..Europe can recapitalize its armed forces and help Ukraine win with relatively modest expenditures. “Effectively, committing merely 0.25% of GDP annually towards military assistance to Ukraine would provide approximately €120 billion [$130 billion]—more than sufficient resources to implement” the strategy the report recommends. With the United States out of the picture, that figure would b
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Archive 'Vladimir Putin is openly preparing his country for a long war and is encouraged by mounting signs of weakness among Ukraine’s Western allies. In order to defeat the Kremlin dictator and end the threat posed by resurgent Russian imperialism, Ukraine and its international partners must stop thinking in terms of individual offensives and adopt a more long-term approach to this historic task.&#
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Archive '.. went on record saying:
"If we walk away, and Russia is able to sustain their onslaught and bring down Ukraine, what do you think’s going to happen in the Balkan countries?”…“It changes the dynamic."
Of course it would have been infinitely better had they understood this possibility a year ago when they refused to arm Ukraine properly. The administration bears a significan
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Archive 'The West must dispense with the fantasy that negotiations can end the conflict and instead keep working to help Ukraine. It must realize that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intention is to destroy Ukraine and that he will therefore fight on until his military is physically defeated, treating any cease-fire simply as a chance to rearm for a more decisive attack in the future. In fact, pr
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Archive '..deliver a lot more equipment .. Ukraine..'
'Macron said some 40 SCALP long-range missiles and several hundred bombs would be delivered in the coming weeks.
"We are going to deliver a lot more equipment and help Ukraine with what it needs to defend its skies," Macron told a news conference. "I will go myself to Ukraine in February and finalise these texts.&q
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Archive 'Prior to tomorrow's consideration of a resolution to deprive Hungary from its voting rights in the Council of the EU, Orbán has signaled to the EU that it is ready to lift its opposition to funding Ukraine. Talks continue to enable Hungary to save face.'
- NOELREPORTS (Source, January 17, 2024)
Context
(The End of Democracy) - '..what happens if the West is humil
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Archive 'Furthermore, the failure of certain European and American companies to comply with the embargo on the supply of military or dual-use technologies to Russia is in our view particularly serious. It requires a very firm response, which could consist of the creation within NATO of a structure modelled on the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom) of the Cold War. The co
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Archive "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
- Yeats, The Second Coming
'..the Biden administration is so lacking in political skill it cannot mobilise the majority to break the deadlock .. The decision of the Biden administration to keep Ukraine as a tortured prisoner, without the weapons systems it needs to break free, will not just se
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Archive 'Group of Seven member states have intensified efforts to agree on funneling some of the $300 billion in "immobilized" Russian central bank and other sovereign assets to Ukraine just as massive U.S. and EU support proposals have run into resistance, the Financial Times reports. Such assets could fund Ukraine's defense and eventual reconstruction and encourage an end to the 21-
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Archive '..One of the reasons that the Russian campaign this winter against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has been less effective than last year’s, has been the Patriots. I will write more on this later, but so far there have not been the major power cuts of last winter. And as long as Ukraine continues getting anti-air ammo, there should not be.
..Ukraine, once again, has shown what it can
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Archive 'Australia will extend and expand its commitment to the training of recruits from the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of Operation Kudu, throughout 2024.
Since January, Australian soldiers have helped to train more than 1,200 recruits as part of the UK-led and based multinational training mission to support Ukraine’s national defence following Russia’s illegal and immoral invasion.
The
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Archive '..Russia .. leaving its border undefended..'
'..open the taps and give Ukraine everything they could—but dont assume it would mean Ukrainian defeat. It could even lead to the broadening of the war, as Ukraine would have no reason to hold back and allow Russia the massive advantage its had so far of leaving its border undefended..'
- Phillips Payson O’Brien (Context: Eur
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Archive 'So the US pulling out could actually lead to as escalation. It would take Ukraine’s European supporters to basically open the taps and give Ukraine everything they could—but dont assume it would mean Ukrainian defeat. It could even lead to the broadening of the war, as Ukraine would have no reason to hold back and allow Russia the massive advantage its had so far of leaving its border undef
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Archive 'Its another sign why the stalemate narrative is particularly pernicious. The difference so far this winter is that while the Russian campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure so far seems less effective (though lets not count our chickens) the Ukrainians are fighting an entirely new campaign against Russian infrastructure. This is not stalemate.
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In this war, Ukraine should stay on
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Archive '.. should work to strengthen states—such as democracies in the Pacific Rim and in Europe—that emphatically want the U.S. to assist in their defense and security. Ukraine clearly wants to be in this group. American involvement should be seen as a prize, not a threat, and Ukraine’s example helps clarify what kind of countries would most benefit from—and deserve—that help: Are they willing to
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Archive 'In their letter, the lawmakers called on Biden to send Kyiv the rest of America’s ATACMS missiles with APAM warheads. This would include both the M39 as well as the M39A1 Block IA. The latter also carries a cluster warhead but has a 300-kilometer range, allowing Ukraine to hold at risk targets in all of Crimea. If the Pentagon doesn’t need the M39 due to its cluster warhead, then the same p
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Archive 'Kyiv Post sources claim that the Russians are using the railway to transport military supplies from China. At least four explosions struck the train, they added.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) blew up a freight train in a tunnel on a vital rail link between Russia and China, sources have told Kyiv Post.
The operation, conducted overnight, struck in the Severomuysky Tunnel on th
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Archive 'Excellent by Brad Bowman and John Hardie. ATACMS with 300km range will make Crimea untenable as soon they arrive in Theater. No place for Russian Navy, Air Force, Logistics to hide in Crimea.
On ATACMS for Ukraine, don’t settle for a job half done:
" On ATACMS for Ukraine, don’t settle for a job half done
In this op-ed, John Hardie and Bradley Bowman argue that the US should sen
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Archive '..If we don't help Ukraine actually defeat Russia now, we will regret this strategic failure for many years.'
'..why are we not focused on helping Ukraine win? Do you think the Russians actually care about a just, durable, sustainable peace? If we don't help Ukraine actually defeat Russia now, we will regret this strategic failure for many years.'
- Ben Hodg
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Archive 'I see this and ask the question whether the US administration wants Ukraine to win the war? The answer I see is “no”.'
'What we have seen repeatedly is that Russian targets in Crimea (Sevastopol, logistics, depots) are extremely vulnerable to western ranged weapons. What the Ukrainians have done with a small number of storm shadow/scalp cruise missiles stands out. And yet, here
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Archive '..we need to have a very clear technical strategy for this war together with our allies, because this is crucial for Ukraine’s victory.'
'Ukraine Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi’s article was never about stalemate, but about the technological adaptations needed for victory. This is totally achievable – if the West truly decides it wants Ukraine to win the war.
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..the actua
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Archive '..the administration’s “de-escalation” world view which Ive argued is disastrous as it assumes the US can control things it cant. I wrote about that earlier.'
'What I could not decide at the time was whether the way Ukraine was being armed was the result of an old-fashioned (and flawed view) of how wars are won or whether they were a deliberate decision to limit what Ukraine co
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Archive 'History informs us that inflation is not easily contained once the Genie has escaped from the bottle. Inflation will ebb and flow, while retaining a powerful bias for upside surprises.'
'While following Wednesday evening developments, my thoughts kept returning to a Monday NYT article (Chris Buckley): “Speeches by the Chinese leader show how he was bracing for an intensifying r
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Archive '..the ability of the Allies to destroy German and Japanese equipment before it reached the battlefield .. proved decisive..'
'One of the most wrong headed ideas about war is that they are generally won in decisive battles. Actually, the best way to weaken your enemy is to deprive them of equipment before it reaches the area of battle. If a state at war can destroy the ability o
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Archive '..Last December, he called for the termination of the Constitution so he could be restored to office..'
'(CNN) — Donald Trump is promising a second presidency that would be an aberration in American history.
The former and possibly future commander in chief aspires to strongman power if he wins back the White House next year. He believes his authority would be absolute. He w
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Archive '..Crimea is actually a supply headache for Russia—it has the Kerch bridge and a few naval ports. With strike, Ukraine could take all of these out—making it impossible for Russia to bring in supply from anywhere but directly through occupied Ukraine in the North..'
'..Ukraine still does not possess enough long-range strike (ATACMS, Taurus) etc. I wont lecture any more on this bu
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Archive 'In the US war of independence, the Continental Army, like Ukraine, faced a militarily superior foe. But they fought seven long years with few victories until the end. George Washington wisely avoided defeat and fought on until Britain’s priorities shifted and independence was won. Given this instance of extraordinary strategic patience at the heart of its national story, the United States s
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Archive 'You know my view—not arming Ukraine to win the war will be a catastrophe and will interject long-term instability into Europe. We have a chance to basically end the European security question for decades by having Ukraine win and getting the country into NATO and the EU. If this opportunity is not grasped, it will be a failure of historic proportions.
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Ukraine can win the war. The q
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Archive 'The US is blessed with one of the most prolific water networks in the world, yet it operates at sub-optimal levels. You've all heard my thoughts on the Jones Act, so you can probably guess where the blame falls once again.'
- Peter Zeihan, Reviving Water Transport in the United States, October 31, 2023
Context
'The protectionist measure has almost wiped out domes
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Archive 'If Ukraine falls, we all will fall.'
- Petr Pavel (Source, October 29, 2023)
*** '..the continuing failure to give Ukraine what it needs when it needs..'
'..the Ukrainians this week launched another ATACMS attack, and it was equally as devastating. It seems that using just a few ATACMS, the Ukrainians were able to destroy three S-400 Russian anti-air systems.
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