'..Let the Russians attack, attack, attack. Greet them with now better supplied forces, hopefully in better entrenchments, and take a terrible toll.''And this brings out the other real story. Even a weakened Ukraine without ammunition can take a terrible toll on the attacker. Maybe, just maybe, people will realize the true story of the last few months is that attacking, even with major advantages, is a mugs game. It will be extremely expensive and destructive for the attacking force, and it will show little strategic benefit. This has now been seen for well over a year (since Bakhmut) and it should be the real story of the war to now.
Indeed the side that learns it, and does its best to establish ranged dominance, will be the side that comes out on top in the end. Ukraine, were it smart, (and I very much hope/think that it is) will double down on defensive strategy in 2024. Let the Russians attack, attack, attack. Greet them with now better supplied forces, hopefully in better entrenchments, and take a terrible toll.
At the same time, work on winning the ranged war to roll up the Russian Armed forces from the rear.
Its actually been the story of much of modern war—but its one people need to hear again and again.
Ukraine has much to do. It needs to conscript wisely, it needs to fortify lines, it needs to only attack selectively when it can, and it needs to develop and be given as much ranged capacity as possible. But the story of the last few months confirms that this is the way to win the war.'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien,
Weekend Update 79: The Lines are Stabilizing, May 4, 2024
Context (Ukraine must win) - '..Russia can be defeated if Ukraine is armed properly.''..make 2024 a year that Ukraine can use not just to hold on, but also to prepare to win the war.' '..European states need to plan on supporting Ukraine on their own—the US cannot be relied upon..''We should not be scared of Russia's collapse .. Prepare for it..'