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'..the analysis for Russia and Ukraine was not only off, it represented the greatest strategic failure in analysis in modern history.'
'..all analysts do make mistakes. Certainly I am no exception. However in this case the mistakes were so grave and had such significant policy implications that they require particular study. This was not a case of just a normal error. As part of
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Archive 'Perhaps the most significant outcome of the 1982 Israeli invasion was the birth of Hezbollah .. Beyond Lebanon and Israel, there is the example of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, a lesson in the wages of unfettered hubris..
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Beware of those who promise a new dawn, the birth of a new Middle East, a new balance of power in the region. Lebanon is a microcosm of all that can go wrong.
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Archive '..to understand how modern wars are won and lost, people need to look at the destruction of equipment before it reaches the battlefield—because such destruction is doubly valuable. Not only does is deny the enemy the use of the equipment/ammunition, it destroys it before it can ever be used. Destroying equipment on the battlefield means it could have been used before. Destroying it in the d
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Archive 'The detainees, the orphans, the traumatized, the homeless, will never return to what they were. The dead certainly will not. It will take generations for Gaza to recover, if it even can. This is genocide, even if it does not meet the legal definition. A country cannot live on such an ideology, certainly not when it intends to continue doing so.'
- Gideon Levy, Opinion | Israelis Mus
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Archive 'Roman Pohorily, an analyst and co-founder of the Deep State map that monitors the latest frontline developments in Ukraine, says Ukrainian troops have now pulled back from the village of Nevelske to avoid an encirclement.'
'We are not planning to advance towards the city of Donetsk any time soon, so why are we holding positions near Nevelske when we’re losing Hirnyk?” said the
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Archive 'Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine has now been going on for two and a half years. It has turned into a war of attrition. One contributing factor is that military support from the west has been insufficient, delayed and burdened with too many restrictions. The ongoing incursion into Russian territory suggests, however, that, if provided with enough resources, Ukraine can assert itself on t
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Archive 'As long as Russia maintains a military presence on Crimea, Ukraine will never be fully safe..'
- Ben Hodges, (The liberation of Crimea.., April 3, 2023)
'The ultimate fate of the future of Crimea is arguably the foundational issue of the Russo-Ukraine War. Vladimir Putin coveted Crimea for long before 2014, and illegally seizing Crimea was the first thing he did when he st
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Archive '..All three of these steps are overdue and would help the Ukrainian war effort regardless of who is elected president of the United States in November.'
'The first thing the U.S. should do now is help Ukraine stockpile weaponry. Rather perversely, the administration has actually under-delivered on the aid that it was supposed to give Ukraine over the past year. A few billion do
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Archive 'So Trump loves Orban’s peace plans and loves Kim—that is clear. What there was not at all in the talk was any equivalent praise for the Ukrainians, Europeans or even NATO. There was not a single mention of NATO in the entire address—the longest US acceptance speech in history. Basically Trump either doesn’t care about or actively despises those countries who have been long-standing allies a
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Archive 'Ukraine has the right under international law to attack military targets located in Russian territory, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during an interview on the United News telethon on July 14.'
- (Ukraine defeats Russia) - Ukraine has right to strike military targets within Russian territory, Stoltenberg says
'WHO'LL WIN? .. Gen. Hodges argues that rath
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Archive 'This is clearly defined by international law. Since this is a war that Russia started against Ukraine, Ukraine has the right to self-defense, and this includes strikes on the territory of the aggressor. This is absolutely clear to me.' - Stoltenberg
'Ukraine has the right under international law to attack military targets located in Russian territory, NATO Secretary General Jen
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Archive '..Many voice serious concerns in private, with only a few willing to publicly broach the subject .. But we don’t have to resort to history books to appreciate the critical importance of Bubble analysis. Japan still suffers the consequences of its eighties Bubble period more than three decades later. The 1995/98 collapses of the Mexican, Asian Tiger and Russian Bubbles were catastrophic. The
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Archive '..Ukraine needs to fight smart and on the defensive. If Russia is willing to expend its human resources in such an extreme fashion, Ukraine must adjust to that. Ukraine should try and keep its casualties down while extracting as high a toll as possible on Russia.
If Russia is willing to throw its future away, Ukraine needs to let it.
War is horrible—but in this case there is no altern
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Archive 'People always like to say they want peace. However, sometimes peace is not available, and a “peace” deal does not lead to peace. We are in such a situation now. Russia does not want peace on terms except for Ukrainian amputation and strategic degradation. All this would do is set up a situation for future war in Europe.
As sad as it is, if Ukraine wishes to fight (and it does), its up to
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Archive 'For the first time in American history, a former president has been found guilty of a crime.
A jury of his peers in New York unanimously found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in order to influence the 2016 presidential election.'
- The historic felony conviction of Donald Trump, May 31, 2024
Context
'Trump has long believed, erro
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Archive 'France is planning to send instructors to Ukraine to train the military, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on May 27 after a video meeting with French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.
The announcement comes after reports that some NATO member states are discussing the possibility of sending military instructors or contractors to Ukraine to train
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Archive 'NATO is discussing the possibility of taking control of the skies over Western Ukraine, reports BILD, citing its sources.
According to the publication, some NATO countries are ready to expand support for Kyiv and act directly on Ukrainian territory.'
- Phillips P. OBrien (Source, May 27, 2024)
'There is a figure that says there are 24,000 killed or seriously injured Ru
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Archive 'NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was the latest high-profile Western leader to call for an end to the ban on Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia in an interview with the Economist published on May 24.'
- The Kyiv Independent (Source, May 25, 2024)
'It is in America’s strategic interest that Ukraine defeats Russia. It will also
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Archive 'Madis Roll, the advisor to the President of Estonia for National Security, states that the Estonian government is "seriously" discussing the possibility of sending troops to the west of Ukraine.
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Estonian officials have voiced their approval of the idea of sending Western troops to Ukraine.'
- Estonia is seriously considering sending troops to Ukraine – advisor to
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Archive 'It is profoundly evil to forbid Ukraine from striking into Russian territory with the weapons we provide.
This is a land war between contiguous states. Hence we give the aggressor a systemic advantage.'
- Edward Hunter Christie (Source, May 13, 2024)
'Sent this out as soon as reports came in that Russians were attacking near Kharkiv. The answer to the question seems to
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Archive 'And Ukrainians are right to think that Russia today, like Nazi Germany in 1945, is a fascist imperialist regime that can and must be defeated. Fascism was defeated last time because a coalition held firm and applied its superior economic power. The same holds true now.'
'..the Russian Empire also lost wars. It lost the Crimean War in 1856. It lost the Russo-Japanese War in 1905
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Archive 'Based on real-world experience of what is most important, here is my definition: Inflation is a net increase of money supply and credit with credit marked to market.
Deflation is the opposite, a net decrease of money supply and credit with credit marked to market.'
- Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Zero Hedge Provides Empirical Proof of Deflation (However, He Does Not Even Realiz
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Archive '..Let the Russians attack, attack, attack. Greet them with now better supplied forces, hopefully in better entrenchments, and take a terrible toll.'
'And this brings out the other real story. Even a weakened Ukraine without ammunition can take a terrible toll on the attacker. Maybe, just maybe, people will realize the true story of the last few months is that attacking, even wi
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Archive 'We should not be scared of Russia's collapse. Instead we should accelerate it by helping Ukraine regain its full sovereignty. Russia can become a normal country, living within its own borders. European security will be better for decades. Prepare for it, don't be scared of it.'
- Ben Hodges (Source, May 4, 2024)
'It’s absurd many Western political leaders refuse
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Archive 'The US economy “looks more like the 1970s than we’ve seen before,” he said earlier this week at a discussion hosted by the Economic Club of New York. He repeated that message in a Wall Street Journal interview published Thursday before the GDP report was released. “Things looked pretty rosy in 1972 — they were not rosy in 1973,” Dimon said.'
- Fears about stagflation are mounting in
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Archive 'The European intervention would dash Russian hopes within 24h, and present Moscow with a situation where they have to concede that the war is lost..'
- Tendar, April 27, 2024
'..Tellingly, the countries that are most likely to be targeted in a nuclear attack—those that border Russia, particularly Poland and the Baltic states—are the least concerned about that prospect..�
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Archive '1.5 years ago the Russian government was developing a strategy paper how the AfD can get votes in Germany. The core method was to saw division and hate, exactly what the AfD is doing. Top members were caught using the content of this manifest, almost word by word.'
'The Spiegel Cover [ Alternative gegen Deutschland ] is quite something.
"Landesverräter" means trai
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Archive 'JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon is concerned the US economy could be in for a repeat of the problems that hampered the country during the 1970s.
"Yes, I think there’s a chance that can happen again," he said during an appearance Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York.
The economy in that troubled decade was constrained by stagflation, a combination of low growth and h
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Archive 'The attitude suggests is simply for allies to adopt Ukraine’s strategic objective – restoring the 1991 borders.
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“‘We’re going to do what it takes’. That’s a statement of a strategic aim that then allows the development of a policy.”
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Restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders would include winning back Crimea, the territory Putin annexed in February 2014. “Whoever controls Crimea w
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Archive '..This aid, even if Trump comes into power in January 2025[,] therefore provides a precious window for Ukraine (and Europe) to make 2024 a year that Ukraine can use not just to hold on, but also to prepare to win the war.'
'..a successful Ukrainian Active Defense campaign will be done along side an increasing Ukrainian ranged campaign against Russian infrastructure in Crimea an
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