overview

Advanced

(Big One: 2015 - 2017) - 'The Fall of a High-Yield Fund Echoes 2007 Crunch'

Posted by archive 
<blockquote>'On the morning of Aug. 9, 2007, the French bank BNP Paribas announced it was freezing redemptions from three investment funds it controlled. Because it couldn't put a reliable value on the assets the funds owned, it told investors they couldn't have their money back. Later that morning, the credit markets froze as banks refused to lend to each other; the cost of borrowing dollars overnight, for example, spiked to 5.86 percent from 5.35 percent. It signalled the beginning of the credit crunch.

I'm not saying the closure of the UBS fund portends the start of a second financial Armageddon. But at a time when central banks are trying to get trillions of dollars into the real economy so that companies can invest and hire, the malaise in high-yield debt is cause for concern; at this delicate stage in the global recovery, corporate funding might be getting tighter, not looser.'

- Mark Gilbert, The Fall of a High-Yield Fund Echoes 2007 Crunch, October 2015</blockquote>


<blockquote>'DUBAI—Middle Eastern oil exporters face a combined $1 trillion budget shortfall in the next five years if crude prices stay at present lows and economic reforms aren't introduced more rapidly, an International Monetary Fund official said.'

- Nicolas Parasie, Mideast Oil Exporters Face $1 Trillion Budget Pinch, IMF Official Says, October 21, 2015</blockquote>


Context ('..global deleveraging..' period: 2008 - 2023)

<blockquote>'The scope of the down cycle is proportional to the excesses of the preceding Credit boom.'

'..I'm sticking with my forecast of $10 to $20 a barrel..'</blockquote>