'..Europe can recapitalize its armed forces and help Ukraine win with relatively modest expenditures. “Effectively, committing merely 0.25% of GDP annually towards military assistance to Ukraine would provide approximately €120 billion [$130 billion]—more than sufficient resources to implement” the strategy the report recommends. With the United States out of the picture, that figure would be higher, but still not fiscally unbearable.''THE UNITED STATES IS ON THE VERGE of making one of the most—if not the most—self-defeating foreign policy decisions in its history. After more than 75 years leading NATO, there is a good chance that in the coming months or years the United States will diminish or even withdraw from the alliance, which has provided the United States with its most reliable partners, much of its international influence, and a degree of security that few states in history could have dared to dream about. This self-destructive crusade is led, of course, by Donald Trump, the Pied Piper of American decline, and supported by his “America First” faction within the Republican party.
If the United States is stupid enough to neuter NATO, it would begin a spiral of events in Europe that too few have carefully thought through. Because of NATO, Europe over the past 75 years has outsourced to the United States not only much of its military capacity, including its heavy industry, but also its intellectual capacity for heavy thinking about strategy and security. This has only accelerated in the decades since the end of the Cold War. Being left to fend for itself for the first time since World War II would be traumatic. European states would have to react quickly to protect their security—not something that they have been inclined to do since 1945.
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The good news is that Europe, like the United States, is easily rich enough to do this if it has the political will. It dwarfs Russia economically and has a thriving aerospace sector and important cyber and maritime assets. If it was serious, Europe alone could give Ukraine the kind of military force that could enable a Ukrainian victory—and if they move fast, they might be able to do it before the war is over. A recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defense—a welcome counterexample to Europeans outsourcing their hard thinking about security to America—makes clear that Europe can recapitalize its armed forces and help Ukraine win with relatively modest expenditures. “Effectively, committing merely 0.25% of GDP annually towards military assistance to Ukraine would provide approximately €120 billion [$130 billion]—more than sufficient resources to implement” the strategy the report recommends. With the United States out of the picture, that figure would be higher, but still not fiscally unbearable.
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NATO has been a success precisely because it has strengthened both Europe and the United States and provided guarantees—i.e., certainty—to its members. If the United States pulls out from Europe, the states on the continent will face the difficult choice of committing together to Ukrainian victory and making the necessary sacrifices to see that happen, or fracturing into camps. Best of all, of course, would be if the United States didn’t force them to make the choice at all. Best for Europe—and best for the United States.'
- Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien,
What Happens to Europe If America Withdraws? January, 2024
Context'..arm Ukraine properly.''Putin will therefore fight on until his military is physically defeated, treating any cease-fire simply as a chance to rearm for a more decisive attack..'Defeat Putin in a long warFrance's Macron to travel to Ukraine in Feb to finalise bilateral security deal