‘Yes this bond bull will end. But when? .. [Lacy Hunt] replied “a little over 20 years”.‘
– ‘..Long Bond..’, April 12, 2018
‘While many believe that surging debt will boost economic growth, the law of diminishing returns indicates that extreme indebtedness will impede economic growth and ultimately result in economic decline.‘
– Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D, The Debt End Game
‘During the mortgage finance Bubble period, there was some recognition of how the system was “privatizing profits and socializing losses.” And that’s exactly how it played out during the crisis, with expensive bailouts, massive deficit spending and crazy central bank monetization. I would expect the next crisis to have disparate and more problematic dynamics.‘
– Doug Noland, ‘..the next financial tremors..’ May 5, 2018
‘..we already observe the same combination of extreme valuations and divergent market internals that we observed at the 2000 and 2007 peaks..’
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (Context, May 8, 2018)
‘ “Buyout funds have historically valued private companies based on their historical averages,” said the private equity head of a multibillion fund in London. “But private equity investors have raised a lot of capital and to get deals done they are having to pay full price. Many are starting to ignore their traditional metrics.”
The person added: “It’s like 2006 and 2007 all over again.” ‘
– Pension Pulse, Private Equity Going Public? May 8, 2018
Cyc; ‘Deja vu all over again.’
But will the patient listen?
( To be continued.. )
‘According to Roberts, “Rates are ultimately directly impacted by the strength of economic growth and the demand for credit. While short-term dynamics may move rates, ultimately the fundamentals combined with the demand for safety and liquidity will be the ultimate arbiter.”
Inflation and Deflation Definitions
– Inflation: An increase in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market.
– Deflation: A decrease in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market.
You may not like or agree with my definitions, but in a fiat credit-based global setup, this is how the real world works.‘
– Mike “Mish” Shedlock, ‘..Bond..’ , May 2, 2018