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'..If we don't help Ukraine actually defeat Russia now, we will regret this strategic failure for many years.'
'..why are we not focused on helping Ukraine win? Do you think the Russians actually care about a just, durable, sustainable peace? If we don't help Ukraine actually defeat Russia now, we will regret this strategic failure for many years.'
- Ben Hodg
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Archive 'I see this and ask the question whether the US administration wants Ukraine to win the war? The answer I see is “no”.'
'What we have seen repeatedly is that Russian targets in Crimea (Sevastopol, logistics, depots) are extremely vulnerable to western ranged weapons. What the Ukrainians have done with a small number of storm shadow/scalp cruise missiles stands out. And yet, here
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Archive '..we need to have a very clear technical strategy for this war together with our allies, because this is crucial for Ukraine’s victory.'
'Ukraine Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi’s article was never about stalemate, but about the technological adaptations needed for victory. This is totally achievable – if the West truly decides it wants Ukraine to win the war.
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..the actua
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Archive '..the administration’s “de-escalation” world view which Ive argued is disastrous as it assumes the US can control things it cant. I wrote about that earlier.'
'What I could not decide at the time was whether the way Ukraine was being armed was the result of an old-fashioned (and flawed view) of how wars are won or whether they were a deliberate decision to limit what Ukraine co
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Archive 'History informs us that inflation is not easily contained once the Genie has escaped from the bottle. Inflation will ebb and flow, while retaining a powerful bias for upside surprises.'
'While following Wednesday evening developments, my thoughts kept returning to a Monday NYT article (Chris Buckley): “Speeches by the Chinese leader show how he was bracing for an intensifying r
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Archive '..the ability of the Allies to destroy German and Japanese equipment before it reached the battlefield .. proved decisive..'
'One of the most wrong headed ideas about war is that they are generally won in decisive battles. Actually, the best way to weaken your enemy is to deprive them of equipment before it reaches the area of battle. If a state at war can destroy the ability o
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Archive '..Last December, he called for the termination of the Constitution so he could be restored to office..'
'(CNN) — Donald Trump is promising a second presidency that would be an aberration in American history.
The former and possibly future commander in chief aspires to strongman power if he wins back the White House next year. He believes his authority would be absolute. He w
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Archive '..Crimea is actually a supply headache for Russia—it has the Kerch bridge and a few naval ports. With strike, Ukraine could take all of these out—making it impossible for Russia to bring in supply from anywhere but directly through occupied Ukraine in the North..'
'..Ukraine still does not possess enough long-range strike (ATACMS, Taurus) etc. I wont lecture any more on this bu
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Archive 'In the US war of independence, the Continental Army, like Ukraine, faced a militarily superior foe. But they fought seven long years with few victories until the end. George Washington wisely avoided defeat and fought on until Britain’s priorities shifted and independence was won. Given this instance of extraordinary strategic patience at the heart of its national story, the United States s
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Archive 'You know my view—not arming Ukraine to win the war will be a catastrophe and will interject long-term instability into Europe. We have a chance to basically end the European security question for decades by having Ukraine win and getting the country into NATO and the EU. If this opportunity is not grasped, it will be a failure of historic proportions.
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Ukraine can win the war. The q
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Archive 'The US is blessed with one of the most prolific water networks in the world, yet it operates at sub-optimal levels. You've all heard my thoughts on the Jones Act, so you can probably guess where the blame falls once again.'
- Peter Zeihan, Reviving Water Transport in the United States, October 31, 2023
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'The protectionist measure has almost wiped out domes
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Archive 'If Ukraine falls, we all will fall.'
- Petr Pavel (Source, October 29, 2023)
*** '..the continuing failure to give Ukraine what it needs when it needs..'
'..the Ukrainians this week launched another ATACMS attack, and it was equally as devastating. It seems that using just a few ATACMS, the Ukrainians were able to destroy three S-400 Russian anti-air systems.
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Archive '..If Western governments want to see more successes on the battlefield, providing Ukraine with more and longer-range missiles to continue denying Russia the freedom to move in Crimea would be a good place to start. Either way, Western observers should stop focusing only on the land war and put these remarkable Ukrainian achievements into the context they deserve. Otherwise, arguing in favor
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Archive '..Another critical characteristic of the earlier inflation era was frequent temporary reversals in inflation, only to be followed by new peaks..'
- (Global Stagflation)(Inflation out of control) - Inflationary Psychology Has Set In. Dislodging It Won’t Be Easy.
'High inflation has created severe financial pressures for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for
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Archive '“There’s this perverse feedback loop in play between what the government is doing and what the Fed’s trying to achieve,” says Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer of French fund manager Amundi
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The Congressional Budget Office projects the government will run a deficit of 5% to 7% of gross domestic product every year for the next decade. For context, from the end of the World War I
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Archive '..Another critical characteristic of the earlier inflation era was frequent temporary reversals in inflation, only to be followed by new peaks..'
- (Global Stagflation)(Inflation out of control) - Inflationary Psychology Has Set In. Dislodging It Won’t Be Easy.
'..If the Fed and global central bankers relax with inflation in the five to six percent range, it will likely sp
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Archive '..the United States is not focusing its spending on essential weapons and ammunition .. The United States has hampered its defense industry with regulations that don’t allow it to access economies of scale. Factories operated by allies abroad could help the United States build munitions much faster, and domestic businesses, especially those specializing in artificial intelligence and other
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Archive '(Bloomberg) -- Underlying US inflation is seen rising at a monthly pace that corroborates the message from central bankers that interest rates will need to stay higher for longer .. price pressures are nonetheless proving sticky..'
- US Core Inflation Seen Corroborating Higher-for-Longer Fed, October 8, 2023
'Bank of Canada deputy governor Nicolas Vincent says businesses r
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Archive '"What I think Ukrainians have done correctly is to focus their efforts on destroying artillery, destroying headquarters, destroying logistics," Hodges said.
"This is how you neutralize the only advantage the Russians have—the advantage of mass—by taking away their headquarters, taking away the artillery that's required to support them and make it difficult for Ukraini
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Archive “The chancellor must end his blockade of Taurus delivery,” said senior Green Party Member, Anton Hofreiter. “Hesitation and technical excuses contribute to strengthening Vladimir Putin’s belief that he can still win, and this prolongs the war.”
- Source, September 27, 2023
'Helping Ukraine win the war as quickly as possible is imperative..'
'Only when the United Kingdom
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Archive 'A retired colonel of the British army, Richard Kemp @COLRICHARDKEMP, had the opportunity to see the Ukrainian counteroffensive with his own eyes.
He has served in many hot zones around the world: Northern Ireland, the Balkans, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Here is his professional take on what’s going on on the frontlines. He warns that a ceasefire, as some are proposing, will not bring about the
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Archive 'And in September 2023, the @TheStudyofWar team began mapping the Ukrainian campaign for #Crimea.'
- Jennifer Cafarella (Source, September 23, 2023)
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The liberation of Crimea..
(Ukraine needs ATACMs) - '..If the United States can finally provide the weaponry to really force a showdown in Crimea..'
'Ukraine needs a fresh fleet.. Over 4,600 F-16s h
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Archive '..If the United States can finally provide the weaponry to really force a showdown in Crimea, the Ukrainians could achieve something that looks like victory; let’s hope that the Biden administration finally comes to understand this and acts accordingly.'
- Francis Fukuyama, Ukraine at War, September 18, 2023
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'Putin .. almost certainly is the worst ruler imagin
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Archive '..the (frankly bizarre) discussion that has been raging since February 24, 2022 – over whether someone worse than Putin would take over if he fell from power. This discussion is one of the regular tropes that has been used to warn against pressing Russia too much in Ukraine – as if pushing Putin out of power would result in someone or something worse.
This discussion has never made sense
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Archive 'I wrote to President Biden with my colleagues and urged him to provide Ukraine with the missiles its military needs to win. Not doing so will only prolong the war and cost lives.'
- Senator Tom Cotton (Source, September 16, 2023)
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'..the weather in the Autumn wont make the kind of difference in the Ukrainian counteroffensive..'
(Ukraine needs ATACMs) -
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Archive 'Good to see Budanov discussing how the weather in the Autumn wont make the kind of difference in the Ukrainian counteroffensive that people think. Thats exactly what @MBielieskov said in our podcase released on Thursday.'
- Phillips P. OBrien (Source, September 9, 2023)
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'The Future Is Being Decided in Ukraine.' - Ukraine’s fall offensive will be predomina
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Archive '..U.S. officials should make it clear that if Putin continues to attack civilians and the infrastructure they depend on, the United States will incrementally remove restrictions, including those that currently prevent Ukraine from taking proportional, discriminate action on Russian soil in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian soil.'
'In Putin’s nearly quarter century of rul
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Archive 'Meanwhile, Cmoc said Canada wants to ramp up its role in anti-corruption projects in Ukraine, such as through training judges and forensic auditors.
“They recognize this is a very important reform; they know that this is one of the stipulations for EU accession,” she said.
“We challenge Ukraine; we support Ukraine.” '
- Canada’s envoy to Ukraine says Canadian support will outl
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Archive '..inflationary forces have taken hold..'
'After all, inflationary forces have taken hold throughout the U.S. economy. It would now require a significant tightening of financial conditions to quash the unfolding inflationary cycle. Recent tempering of wage gains doesn’t negate the strongest compensation momentum in decades. Importantly, labor markets remain sufficiently tight to
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Archive 'Another element of Western strategy is identifying the key operational and institutional problems requiring support. The United States may need to accept that its doctrine for highly complex air-land warfare is not fully suited to Ukraine. This fact does not mean that combined-arms warfare is not effective. But NATO needs to lead a rapid reevaluation of its doctrine now to develop the tacti
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